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Title: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 03, 2021, 05:42:18 PM
Maybe it's time to move it down here. Or maybe it's done. Anyway. Electric vehicles (EVs) have their plusses and minuses -- like everything else. Here's a short, and by no means complete, list from my point of view, mostly obvious but maybe a few less so.

Plusses:

Higher efficiency measured from the vehicle energy input point. This is due to the relatively high efficiency of Li storage batteries, switching power electronics and electric motors. Regeneration during braking helps further. Pure EVs with large batteries are better able to take advantage of regen. Essentially zero consumption when stopped.

Excellent driving experience. No reciprocating parts makes for low vibration and noise, especially when stopped or at low speeds. Instantaneous power control (both positive and negative) allows for a high level of driving precision and smoothness. Fast acceleration occurs without drama or excessive wear (except for tires) or even much extra energy consumption. The increase from rapid starts is mostly due to the longer time spent in cruise with the resulting higher aerodynamic loss.

No warm-up required and cold shutdowns do not cause damage. Great for those of us who need to reposition vehicles now and then or make short trips.

No reduction in performance with altitude.

Lower direct operating cost in the current market. (My daily driver costs ~ $.04 / mi for electricity -- about the same per-mile cost as tires).

Lower maintenance and the potential for lower lifetime cost as batteries become cheaper. We're just about there for high-utilization operators whose mission profile fits.

Home or shop/depot charging eliminates trips to the gas station. Charging time is essentially zero for intermittently utilized vehicles that sit by a charger when not in use.

Easy and efficient integration into an electric energy-infrastructure. More below.

Minuses:

Range comes at a high cost in purchase-price and weight.

Charging is slow, which is an issue for cross county travel or other high utilization. Mitigated to some extent with larger batteries and high-power chargers. (A larger battery can absorb charge more rapidly adding more miles per minute of charge.) With current batteries the last 20% of charge is much slower so a driving schedule that allows charging to 80% saves a lot of time. Current EVs can charge from 20% to 80% in roughly 30 minutes given a powerful enough charger. Advances in this area are likely.

Many apartment dwellers, and others without private, electrified parking, must rely on inconvenient (and often expensive) public chargers.

Low ambient temperature reduces battery capacity and winter driving consumes more emery reducing range. Partially mitigated by thermal management of the battery, such as charging up to the moment of departure to warm the battery.

Extended high power operation, such as racing on a track, can exceed the battery's thermal limit. This has been mitigated in race-oriented cars through thermal management.

High weight that does not go down as fuel is burned. This compromises handling while being partially mitigated by placing the battery down low. Not too much of a concern outside of serious motorsports though there are knock-on effects such as tire and road wear.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Toward an Electric Energy Infrastructure

As we face an ever more diverse range of energy sources (some of which may not yet have been discovered or developed) we need an infrastructure that can efficiently combine and distribute their energy. Electricity has some advantages:

It is highly fungible. Thanks to power electronics, it is easy and relatively cheap to convert any format (Voltage, frequency, phase) into another. Varying sources such as solar and wind are easy to accommodate.

Electrical machines usually achieve 80% - 90% efficiency at converting in and out of mechanical energy. This is better than combustion engines or current schemes for electrolyzing water into Hydrogen.

Electricity is relatively cheap and safe to transport (PG&E's current problems not withstanding  >:( ). DC transmission lines are efficient for long distances where their lower loss offsets rectifier/inverter losses.

So far there is no intercontinental transmission of electric power, but it is not out of the question. This could be quite useful for large-scale leveling of intermittent sources, such as solar.

The elephant-in-the-room minus is storage, both for utility scale load-leveling, which is especially important for intermittent sources, and for vehicles, including air vehicles, that can't be on a cord. Rail transport and the like (hyperloop) distinctly do not belong to this class. Our great hope, for now, is battery technology, which is advancing nicely. Clearly, wider use of batteries will require extracting raw materials and efficient reuse of those materials is required for this to be at all sustainable. This is where I believe we should be directing our efforts.

I've been an EV queen for quite a while. The stable consists of a 2000 Easy Go golf car (to be converted to Li when the current Pb-acids go TU), a 2015 Tesla S 85 D (6 years and going strong), and a 2020 Sur Ron Light Bee electric dirt bike (2 kWh of pure fun).

--Frank
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Brian Jojade on June 03, 2021, 06:05:53 PM
All great points.

Looking far into the future, the concept of an internal combustion engine is very archaic.  It's a great stopgap for now, but the excessive complexity just doesn't make a lot of sense.  Some people are just beholden to the idea of the engine and don't want to give that idea up.  They like the idea of pressing the gas to rev the engine and make noise. Can't really do that with the electrics.

From a performance standpoint, anyone that has driven a performance electric vehicle will quickly say that it certainly can easily keep up with the gas counterparts.  Even the low end electrics are quite responsive machines.

Interestingly enough, electric cars have been made since the early 1800's.  Limited battery technology of the time and easy access to oil meant development went into gas engines instead, leaving electric cars all but forgotten.  But, in the last 100 years, we've just about maximized efficiency that we can realistically get out of gas engines.  Improvements year over year are now very small. Any increase in performance or efficiency comes at a very high increase in cost. So much so that it's not practical to make much more advancement.

The need for batteries in portable devices such as laptops and phones has massively improved upon the storage density and reliability of batteries. This naturally has been expanded now into the electric vehicles we are seeing on the market as well.  This technology is still quite young and there is a lot yet to learn.  100 years from now, we will likely have alternative ways to store electricity, or even generate electricity from.  Someday, we may be able to pull out an old banana peel and a half full can of beer and drop it into Mr. Fusion and be on our way.

Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Caleb Dueck on June 03, 2021, 08:00:15 PM
Many great points, for sure.

Also agree that battery tech is a (the?) key bottleneck.  For example, periodic sources of electricity, like solar, are limited by battery tech.  It's sunny outside today at my house, the power just blipped off for a half second while the computer UPS kicked in.  If the cost/capacity of batteries was significantly better so nearly every home had some sort of in-wall battery solution - then the question could shift to, "Why not buy some solar panels?" or some other way of generating intermittent power. 

If all homes were built with whatever size in-wall batteries - even a plug-in exercise bike would make sense to own!
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Tim Halligan on June 03, 2021, 08:26:47 PM
The current fossil-fuelled vehicle paradigm is one that we all know very well: you pull up next to the pump, fill your tank, pay the cashier, then drive off with the capacity for however many kilometres of travel before needing to repeat the process. The whole refuelling procedure takes 5 minutes...10 tops.

Until EV's can deliver that kind of charging paradigm they will be a non-starter in many people's minds.

Hydrogen fuel cell equipped vehicles - whilst still a relatively new product - allow us to continue with the paradigm we are all familiar with, and as such may change a few minds along the way.

Cheers,
Tim
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Matthias McCready on June 03, 2021, 08:45:03 PM
Many great points, for sure.

Also agree that battery tech is a (the?) key bottleneck.  For example, periodic sources of electricity, like solar, are limited by battery tech.  It's sunny outside today at my house, the power just blipped off for a half second while the computer UPS kicked in.  If the cost/capacity of batteries was significantly better so nearly every home had some sort of in-wall battery solution - then the question could shift to, "Why not buy some solar panels?" or some other way of generating intermittent power. 

If all homes were built with whatever size in-wall batteries - even a plug-in exercise bike would make sense to own!

Check out Pumped-storage hydroelectricity :-)

The gist is that a body of water can become a giant battery. When there is excess power (ie solar during the day) water is pumped up into the holding area. When energy is needed it flows out through generators. The whole process is somewhere around 90% efficient I believe.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 03, 2021, 09:43:38 PM
The current fossil-fuelled vehicle paradigm is one that we all know very well: you pull up next to the pump, fill your tank, pay the cashier, then drive off with the capacity for however many kilometres of travel before needing to repeat the process. The whole refuelling procedure takes 5 minutes...10 tops.

Until EV's can deliver that kind of charging paradigm they will be a non-starter in many people's minds.

Hydrogen fuel cell equipped vehicles - whilst still a relatively new product - allow us to continue with the paradigm we are all familiar with, and as such may change a few minds along the way.

Ultimately I would guess that, as has happened so many times before, economics is what will encourage people to accept the end of the old refuelling paradigm. Faster charging is always more expensive (and that includes hydrogen fuel cell technology, which has been around for nearly two centuries in some form or other but has never managed to overcome the difficulties of storing and transporting pure hydrogen—a substance that makes gasoline look like water); there are applications where that expense can be worth it, but for most people it probably isn't (and people will do almost anything to save a little money). Besides, for a lot of people (particularly in places where single-family housing is the norm) the old paradigm is significantly less convenient than what overnight home charging offers.

Of course, this all assumes that individual car ownership will continue to be the norm. Driving is already one of the most expensive ways to get from point A to point B (especially once externalities like roadway capacity and parking are factored in), and I wonder at what point that cost becomes higher than people are willing to bear.

Check out Pumped-storage hydroelectricity :-)  {...}

This has real potential for utility-scale storage (although it's only viable in places that aren't already running out of land and/or water), but unfortunately doesn't address the storage-in-transit problem.

One of the biggest selling points of fossil fuels (and petroleum in particular) is their ability to store a phenomenal amount of energy in a package that is a trifecta of small, light-weight, and stable. Nothing we've come up with comes close to achieving more than one or two of these properties (and, frustratingly, the closer we seem to get on the density/specific energy front the further we get from stability, as evidenced by the number of electronics products over the last few years that have been recalled for spontaneously combusting). This is why electric airplanes are such a challenge (and why research is being done to find economical ways to take captured CO2 and turn it back into jet fuel...although if you think the US has electricity distribution problems now, just remember that, in 2019, replacing jet fuel joule-for-joule with electricity would have consumed something like a quarter of all the electricity produced in the whole country).

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Bob Faulkner on June 03, 2021, 09:45:53 PM
I'm not a battery expert, but have come across a couple of things.

Until the battery industry can fix the "memory" related issues with batteries, I'm still opting for the internal combustion engine.  However, I think capacitors are a much better option for energy storage and would consider an EV if it used capacitors (vs. Li-Ion).  Some dash-cams use capacitors.

Regarding slow charging of EV batteries, this is exactly what they need to ensure a full charge.  Fast-charging of batteries is convenient, but it reduces the capacity of the battery over a "not to long" time (think cell phone).
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 03, 2021, 09:50:55 PM
This is actually a mature discussion... I think Nicolas Tesla (the real Tesla) had the right idea with wireless transmission of electricity (I don't think he perfected that). My more pedestrian alternative is conductive tires and roads so cars can lose the heavy batteries and suck power from the roadways as needed. I understand in some EU cities they are experimenting with induction coils buried under the roadway to charge up vehicle batteries but they are focusing on public transportation (buses).

I am old so this is academic to me... I continue to be impressed by the energy in a few ounces of gasoline used by my chain saw to make sawdust. We are crazy to not use fossil fuels while they are so cheap and so plentiful. We are also ignorant to not pursue newer generation nuclear power technology.

I hear that my local power utility is tearing down the clean (cough) coal power plant they built at great expense, and we rate payers are still on the hook for the bill. The federal government thought it was a great idea (thanks). My utility will continue making electricity with NG.

JR
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 03, 2021, 10:24:06 PM
{...} Until the battery industry can fix the "memory" related issues with batteries, I'm still opting for the internal combustion engine. {...}

One of the major selling-points of Li-ion battery chemistry is that it doesn't suffer from a memory effect. Of course Li-ion batteries degrade over time, but keeping them charged near the middle of their capacity drastically slows this process.

{...} However, I think capacitors are a much better option for energy storage and would consider an EV if it used capacitors (vs. Li-Ion). {...}

It's certainly an appealing idea, and I'm sure research is being done in this area, but at present the most advanced supercapacitors on the market have less than 1/10th the specific energy of a Li-ion battery.

This is actually a mature discussion... I think Nicolas Tesla (the real Tesla) had the right idea with wireless transmission of electricity (I don't think he perfected that). My more pedestrian alternative is conductive tires and roads so cars can lose the heavy batteries and suck power from the roadways as needed. I understand in some EU cities they are experimenting with induction coils buried under the roadway to charge up vehicle batteries but they are focusing on public transportation (buses). {...}

I think the big challenge here is that transmitting lots of electricity (whether wirelessly or wired) is hard to do safely if there are people nearby. Obviously rail-based modes of transportation have it easier in this regard, but I'll be interested to see how those in-road induction coils work out.

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Jeff Bankston on June 03, 2021, 11:19:15 PM
great for going to and from a stage at a large concert
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Dave Garoutte on June 04, 2021, 12:04:07 AM
I have one word for you son..Plastic  Thorium.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Jonathan Johnson on June 04, 2021, 02:16:07 AM
Regarding load leveling as we increase our dependence on undependable sources like wind and solar, a large-scale deployment of "small" batteries -- those that are in cars, sitting in garages, plugged in -- could be one answer. When grid demand exceeds online generating capacity, all those cars sitting there could backfeed to the utility to meet that demand while other sources spin up (kind of like a distributed UPS for the grid).

In spite of the energy lost to heat during the charging cycle (inefficiency), it appears that the "emissions per mile" for an electric vehicle are lower than for internal combustion, because large-scale generating plants (even if they burn coal or oil) are so much more efficient and cleaner than small-scale IC vehicle engines. EVs aren't zero-emission vehicles, they're displaced-emission vehicles.

If EVs are primarily charged at night, that's a low-demand period already. So there won't be a need to significantly increase generating or distribution capacity to accommodate a national fleet of EVs -- we have the capacity, if we bother to maximize the charging during low-demand hours.

The biggest obstacle to widespread adoption of EVs is the cost of replacement batteries. Most cars sold are used vehicles, and the people who prefer to buy used vehicles are going to shy away from EVs that will soon need major service (battery replacement). Consumers that are selling or trading in 4-year-old EVs aren't going to invest in a new battery for something they are about to get rid of, just so they can sell it. Will putting a new battery in an old EV raise the value enough to recoup the cost of the battery? I don't know -- I don't think we have enough data yet to know, but in the IC world, repairs almost never raise the value enough to cover the cost of repairs.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Kevin Maxwell on June 04, 2021, 08:19:10 AM
Do any Electric Vehicles have a solar panel on the roof to charge the vehicle a little bit at a time either while just sitting not plugged in or while driving? At a car show I saw a Corvette with a Electric motor that replaced the engine. It was VERY expensive. It also had a transmission and I have wondered wouldn't a transmission in an EV if configured right mean that the motor wouldn't have to work as hard at highway speeds?
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Tim McCulloch on June 04, 2021, 09:05:50 AM
The current fossil-fuelled vehicle paradigm is one that we all know very well: you pull up next to the pump, fill your tank, pay the cashier, then drive off with the capacity for however many kilometres of travel before needing to repeat the process. The whole refuelling procedure takes 5 minutes...10 tops.

Until EV's can deliver that kind of charging paradigm they will be a non-starter in many people's minds.

Hydrogen fuel cell equipped vehicles - whilst still a relatively new product - allow us to continue with the paradigm we are all familiar with, and as such may change a few minds along the way.

Cheers,
Tim

The point of BEVs is that they can be charged really fast for bigger money, or more slowly, at home or work, for far less money.  The need for rapid charging is determined more by travel distance/battery capacity.  If you start your day with a full charge, top off while at work, and again over night at home, you'll always have a full tank.  If you're doing a cross-USA or cross-Australia trip, that's a very different paradigm than using a BEV for daily driving.

There will be a role for diesel and other ICE - there are places, situations and circumstances that do not make BEV practical.  If the goal is to reduce various forms of tailpipe emissions, moving the majority of daily, short-ish  (<150 miles) drives to BEVs has far more impact than moving long distance vehicles to electricity.  At least with existing technologies and infrastructure.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 04, 2021, 09:29:27 AM
Do any Electric Vehicles have a solar panel on the roof to charge the vehicle a little bit at a time either while just sitting not plugged in or while driving? At a car show I saw a Corvette with a Electric motor that replaced the engine. It was VERY expensive. It also had a transmission and I have wondered wouldn't a transmission in an EV if configured right mean that the motor wouldn't have to work as hard at highway speeds?

There have been a number of experimental vehicles with massive solar panels covering the roof... 

Back in the 90s I had a commercial solar powered car vent fan that hangs on the window and gets power for the fan from the sun. It did not work that well, but relatively small solar panel.

JR 
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 04, 2021, 10:53:18 AM
On the list of plusses I'd like to add no transmission needed in most applications. Electric motors, and their controllers, generally provide maximum torque at stall and torque decreases modestly with speed over a very wide speed range. The complete specification of motor performance is complex, much like that of audio power amplifiers, as thermal limits on multiple time-scales must be taken into account. But the result is that all current or imminent production cars and light trucks use nothing more than a fixed reduction gear between the motor and the differential, or the wheel in the case of hub motors. (There might be a trick that manufacturers can employ on dual motor vehicles which is to gear the front and rear axles differently allowing for some "transmission effect" by proportioning torque between the axles. Not sure about this but it makes sense.)

Personally, I've never been a friend of the automatic transmission and prefer to row my own when driving an IC vehicle -- hey, it's an art, and a form of personal expression ;) But with the need for variable gearing gone I don't miss those levers and pedals.

If you haven't driven a modern EV you really should give one a try. In terms of driving experience it's hard to go back.

--Frank

Oh, the best part: When your nosy no-nothing neighbor asks, "So, is it a manual or an automatic?" you can say "neither".
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Weogo Reed on June 04, 2021, 11:46:13 AM
Hi Frank,

    We have a 2014 Mitsubishi I-MiEV.  Stooopid name, great car.
Range is only about 50 miles in winter, 80 in summer.  This is plenty for 95% of our regular trips.
With the smaller battery, the car weighs less than 2600#.
Battery warranty is for 10 years.  Currently we have over 95% of original capacity.
99% of charging is at home. 
Rear motor, rear-wheel drive  -  climbs steep, gravel roads like a mountain goat.
We have an infernal combustion car for longer trips.

    Bring back the passenger rail system we had in the USA in 1946.

Thanks and good health,  Weogo
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John L Nobile on June 04, 2021, 12:40:34 PM
Then there's hydrogen cell vehicles. Toyota seems to be betting big on that technology. Longer range but the infrastructure would be so much more expensive to establish.

It would seem like EV's have a huge advantage over hydrogen but seeing Toyota investing in it really makes me wonder. And longer range, shorter pit stops may be the deciding factor.

Here's a short article

https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/hydrogen-vs-electric-which-is-actually-more-efficient?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=driving_make-model&utm_content=ontario_toronto&cid=SEARCH%7CGOOGLE%7CTORONTO-DYN%7CPPC&gclid=Cj0KCQjwnueFBhChARIsAPu3YkQ9RB8DiqEXpI9akCGAzFwopeQtCUJVUAUQDlf7Nau6gRXHP0aaSY4aArO8EALw_wcB
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 04, 2021, 12:40:59 PM
We have an infernal combustion car for longer trips.

Ha, that's what my dad used to call them in the 1960s. I, too, rely on IC power for the long hauls but hope to be around long enough to see that change. Looking forward to my last-ever oil change. -F
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: lindsay Dean on June 04, 2021, 01:07:56 PM
Anyway........
 I made a post weeks ago that addresses even though
  battery powered vehicles are being touted as
the best thing since sliced bread .
  There articles and studies and a documentary
 that exposed the fallacy which is electric vehicles
 and the support system we do not have.
 We do not have the infrastructure to support the electrical needs,
 we do not have any way of sustaining a supply of the batteries,
if you look at the raw materials we have to make batteries
the estimate was that if almost every car was converted to electrical
that we were run out of materials to build the batteries
in less than 10 years.
 It's all a bunch of money grabbing
 smoke and mirrors on top of the tragedy
of what to do with these non-recyclable
components of the batteries.
 it's all a big bunch of bull shot.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 04, 2021, 01:17:50 PM
Then there's hydrogen cell vehicles. Toyota seems to be betting big on that technology. Longer range but the infrastructure would be so much more expensive to establish.

It would seem like EV's have a huge advantage over hydrogen but seeing Toyota investing in it really makes me wonder. And longer range, shorter pit stops may be the deciding factor.

Here's a short article

https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/hydrogen-vs-electric-which-is-actually-more-efficient?utm_source=google&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=driving_make-model&utm_content=ontario_toronto&cid=SEARCH%7CGOOGLE%7CTORONTO-DYN%7CPPC&gclid=Cj0KCQjwnueFBhChARIsAPu3YkQ9RB8DiqEXpI9akCGAzFwopeQtCUJVUAUQDlf7Nau6gRXHP0aaSY4aArO8EALw_wcB

Right. But unless we find a more efficient way to electrolyze water and compress, or otherwise compactly store (adsorption), the hydrogen the overall system efficiency, starting with electricity, is bad. Getting hydrogen from natural gas, as we do now, is worse than burning the natural gas directly in an IC or EC engine, so far as I know. Hydrogen technology definitely is worth perusing but in its current form is looking weak compared with BEV for road transport. It may find use in aviation if we can find a good way to store it. On the other hand, even a factor of 2 improvement in battery energy density, in combination with advanced electric propulsion, would open up a lot of aviation applications, maybe just not long-haul jet transport.

Further, I don't trust Toyota on this. Their engineers aren't stupid. I suspect their foundering hydrogen vehicle program was in large part a marketing effort to throw dirt on BEVs while they played catch-up. You know they've got BEVs in the lab and even have a history of BEVs -- the RAV4 EV that was developed in collaboration with Tesla.

Gotta go now. --Frank
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 04, 2021, 01:37:58 PM
^^^ Definitely mud slinging going on Frank.  All the way back to Thomas Alva Edison brutally electrocuting animals in public displays in his personal campaign against Nikola Tesla and Alternating Current electricity.

Today we have the Enviroweenies and their recent "triumph" over the Keystone XL pipeline.  they just shot themselves and everyone else in the foot and don't even know what they did.

Now instead of the tar sand from Alberta moving in a more efficient pipeline system, as some already does, the XL would have streamlined transportation.

Now it's being moved by rail:  https://e360.yale.edu/features/shipping_crude_oil_by_rail_new_front_in_tar_sands_wars

Now ask yourself, who profits from this?  Not the consumer, definitely not the environment as moving it by rail is the worst way - much more pollution.

Hmmmmm......who owns the railroads?  They would profit.

The "environmentalists" in this "battle" are being used as pawns in a very dirty slight of hand game and aren't smart enough to realize it.  The MSM keeps the "debate" miles and miles away from the truth.  Ask Warren Buffet who's quietly pulling the strings of this battle.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 04, 2021, 01:39:33 PM
{...}
The biggest obstacle to widespread adoption of EVs is the cost of replacement batteries. Most cars sold are used vehicles, and the people who prefer to buy used vehicles are going to shy away from EVs that will soon need major service (battery replacement). Consumers that are selling or trading in 4-year-old EVs aren't going to invest in a new battery for something they are about to get rid of, just so they can sell it. Will putting a new battery in an old EV raise the value enough to recoup the cost of the battery? I don't know -- I don't think we have enough data yet to know, but in the IC world, repairs almost never raise the value enough to cover the cost of repairs.

I'll be really interested to see the data on this, too. I see two big differences between IC and BEV cars that might impact this.

First is the number of moving parts (i.e. the number of things that can wear out). Owning an IC car (especially an older model) is basically just waiting around to see what fails next, and the repair/replace decision is complicated by the fact that fixing today's failure won't necessarily prevent tomorrow's. With fewer things that can fail, BEVs may avoid this to some extent.

The second difference, and perhaps more important, is the parts-to-labour cost ratio, especially for something like a new battery. Replacing a broken widget on a car (IC or BEV) will basically only increase (or, rather, restore) the value of the car by the cost of the widget (give or take), which means that the owner is left to eat the cost labour. If the widget in question is, say, a timing belt, then the amount of labour cost that needs to be eaten will be at least an order of magnitude more than the cost of the part (and therefore the resale value of the repair). Conversely, if the widget in question is a $10k battery, suddenly the relative cost of the labour moves into a realm that could be covered by a reasonable retail markup.

My hunch is that we're not going to see a lot of "used" BEVs on the market, but sooner or later there will be a market for "refurbished" models.

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 04, 2021, 02:05:15 PM
^^^ Same logic can be applied to a $3K transmission overhaul or $5K engine.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 04, 2021, 03:13:44 PM
^^^ Definitely mud slinging going on Frank.  All the way back to Thomas Alva Edison brutally electrocuting animals in public displays in his personal campaign against Nikola Tesla and Alternating Current electricity.

Today we have the Enviroweenies and their recent "triumph" over the Keystone XL pipeline.  they just shot themselves and everyone else in the foot and don't even know what they did.

Now instead of the tar sand from Alberta moving in a more efficient pipeline system, as some already does, the XL would have streamlined transportation.

Now it's being moved by rail:  https://e360.yale.edu/features/shipping_crude_oil_by_rail_new_front_in_tar_sands_wars

Now ask yourself, who profits from this?  Not the consumer, definitely not the environment as moving it by rail is the worst way - much more pollution.

Hmmmmm......who owns the railroads?  They would profit.

The "environmentalists" in this "battle" are being used as pawns in a very dirty slight of hand game and aren't smart enough to realize it.  The MSM keeps the "debate" miles and miles away from the truth.  Ask Warren Buffet who's quietly pulling the strings of this battle.

Speaking as an Albertan (i.e. someone whose education and healthcare have been partially subsidized by the royalties paid on bitumen extraction) I can promise you that the question of how best to transport bitumen isn't nearly as simple as that.

Here's one example: unlike with light crude (which is somewhat dangerous to transport regardless mode), raw bitumen is nearly inert (to the point that, in Canada, it isn't even covered by hazardous goods transportation regulations). Before you can pump bitumen through a pipeline, though, it has to be substantially diluted, which has the effect of making it both more volatile and more environmentally-hazardous (the cleanup costs on dilbit spills can easily run into the billions of dollars). Conversely, raw bitumen in a tank car is barely a liquid (the cars themselves have to be heated to keep the stuff from literally freezing solid); in a derailment it doesn't spill so much as ooze, it can't explode, and it's very hard to light on fire. Plus, by removing the requirement for a diluent (which can more costly to acquire than the value of the bitumen its being mixed with, but has almost not value at the other end of the pipeline) the cost-per-barrel of rawbit-by-rail is basically comparable to pipeline transport, with the added benefit that, outside of terminals, it can use existing infrastructure and regulatory approvals.

There also continue to be questions about the business case for bitumen-oriented pipelines like Keystone XL, since it's hard to justify those kinds of upfront costs if there isn't a great deal of long-term certainty in the bitumen market. Bitumen costs significantly more per barrel than any other kind of oil to both produce and to transport, and the recent flood of shale oil coming on the market (to say nothing of OPEC-related fun times) have made the economic case for long-term bitumen extraction somewhat less certain (and, therefore, the likelihood of asset-stranding higher). And that's all before you get into the details that bitumen isn't just heavy, it's also sour, so a lot of the refineries in North America aren't currently equipped to refine it, anyway.

And on, an on...

^^^ Same logic can be applied to a $3K transmission overhaul or $5K engine.

Not quite, though. Both of those jobs are quite a bit more mechanically complex (and therefore labour-intensive) than a battery swap (8-10 shop hours vs 3-5), and you'd really have to do them both to get similar benefits to a battery swap in an EV (so more like 16-20 shop hours vs 3-5). Put another way, the parts-to-labour ratio of replacing a car's transmission and engine is ~3:1, while a battery swap would be closer to 10:1, and my guess is that the market might be willing to bear the latter even though it won't currently bear the former.

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 04, 2021, 03:32:22 PM
Well, I suppose the entire Keystone pipeline system and concept could have been done without a business case - not likely, but anything's possible these days.  If the government was involved in paying for it then very likely no business case to support it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline

I still smell a rat in this whole thing.  Too many conflicting things.  It's not a question of Keystone or no Keystone.  Keystone XL is an enhancement to already in service system.

Ratio of parts to labor -vs- condition and value of a used vehicle - I respectfully disagree - money in > overall condition = value.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Riley Casey on June 04, 2021, 03:56:26 PM
Lots of talk about non-starters and unreliable sources compared to traditional fuels, short ranges, all kinds of complaints and all discussed in a way that sort of makes it seem like we have a choice in this endeavor. The certified smart people and the evidence thus far indicate strongly that we don't have a choice or if we do it's that we continue to live as we always have and flush our grand children's lives down the drain. Bottom line thinking needs to come to the fore and that is very likely means ,  baring some fundamental shift in basic energy technology ( anyone heard from desk top cold fusion recently? ) , significant changes in energy consuming lifestyles. Things like private cars disappearing in urban areas, distributed energy generation like roof top solar on every roof, small scale localized windmills, lots less international and long distance travel except by much more efficient transport such as rail. Changes even in diet. Inefficient forms of travel, food, living spaces, industrial production all need to change to make this work. We've only really lived in this energy intensive economy for 150 years or so and that has only been westerners for that period. The rest of the world didn't buy in til after 1945. In that short period of time we've managed to start the process that will make the world uninhabitable.

It's going to mean a different world one way or the other. One version in which we make choices to change behavior substantially to head off the worst case scenarios and one in which the choices are imposed on us by radical changes in climate and we slip slowly toward most of the world living a 15th century existence and a tiny few living in climate controlled environments constantly at war with the people outside the remaining but ever dwindling green places.

Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 04, 2021, 04:15:43 PM
Agreed Riley.  However, it's where the focus is being placed and how that chaps my drawers.

Climate change may be an issue - ok, let's apply technology to correct/prevent/mitigate bad things from happening - great!

But do so in a sane manner, and not shackle entire economies in the process, let alone a few select countries carry the burden while others do nothing.

Honestly, IMO de-forestation and over-population are far more urgent problems than fossil fuels.  Over a billion people in India today and COVID is having devastating effects.  IMO over-population will take the earth over the tipping point way ahead of climate change.  That's not even talked about - I don't mean here guys.

There's big money to be made in the "Green Movement" and none to rally against de-forestation and the population explosion - there will come a day when we just can't feed them anymore.  Why over time are there "under developed" countries?  Why?
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 04, 2021, 08:21:57 PM
Well, I suppose the entire Keystone pipeline system and concept could have been done without a business case - not likely, but anything's possible these days.  If the government was involved in paying for it then very likely no business case to support it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keystone_Pipeline

I still smell a rat in this whole thing.  Too many conflicting things.  It's not a question of Keystone or no Keystone.  Keystone XL is an enhancement to already in service system.
{...}

Business cases change, though. The business case for Keystone XL was great in 2005 when it was announced (and WTI was trading at ~$80/barrel), and it was still great in 2012 when construction was supposed to have started (and WTI was trading at ~$100/barrel), but since 2015 WTI has been hovering around $60/barrel. Worse still, while the original Keystone was built to move a mix of both light sweet crude and heavy sour crude (Alberta produces the former conventionally and the latter in both conventional and non-conventional ways), Keystone XL was largely designed to service growing bitumen production (since light sweet crude production in the province has basically reached maturation) which, because of its high cost, is more price-sensitive than any other form of oil production while also being less in-demand. Add to this some significant social changes (with many major oil companies working hard to diversify themselves out of oil and the increasing prevalence of carbon levies of one form or another) and what seemed like a totally sure thing in 2005 or even 2012 looks much less certain in 2021.

Now, don't get me wrong, there are billions of dollars riding on both sides of the equation, and neither side has a spotlessly-clean record when it comes to swaying public influence. All I'm suggesting is that the situation more complicated than just billionaires trying to screw each other.

{...}
Climate change may be an issue - ok, let's apply technology to correct/prevent/mitigate bad things from happening - great!

But do so in a sane manner, and not shackle entire economies in the process, let alone a few select countries carry the burden while others do nothing.

Honestly, IMO de-forestation and over-population are far more urgent problems than fossil fuels.  Over a billion people in India today and COVID is having devastating effects.  IMO over-population will take the earth over the tipping point way ahead of climate change.  That's not even talked about - I don't mean here guys.

There's big money to be made in the "Green Movement" and none to rally against de-forestation and the population explosion - there will come a day when we just can't feed them anymore.  Why over time are there "under developed" countries?  Why?

The annual rate of population increase has been on the decline for decades, with current predictions from the UN suggesting that Earth's population will likely stabilize at ~10-11 billion people around the end of the century. Of course, historically, industrialization was one of the biggest drivers of decreasing birthrates, so as economies around the world grow and quality of life improves it's possible that stabilization will happen sooner, and naturally there's big money to made in doing so (since, if nothing else, people with a better quality of life make better consumers). Any suggestions for population control beyond "make people have more stuff so they'll want fewer kids" tend to be, uh, controversial, to say the least.

Deforestation is certainly a problem (although it is only one of several drivers of climate change), but there's little that a business or government can do about it beyond careful stewardship of its own trees.

As for making "a few select countries carry the burden", the Paris Agreement (ratified by 190 countries including China and India) requires concrete reductions in greenhouse gas emission from all countries (not just wealthy ones).

Pollution reduction of any kind can be seen as "shackling" in economic terms, but the best science (and the smartest money) right now is betting that the economic cost of reducing greenhouse gas emissions will be more than offset by future gains made possible through the reduction of future externalities. Any choices made today carry risk, but there is greater international consensus (190 is a shocking number of countries) about greenhouse gas reduction than there is about almost anything else.

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Dave Garoutte on June 04, 2021, 09:58:09 PM
The annual rate of population increase has been on the decline for decades, with current predictions from the UN suggesting that Earth's population will likely stabilize at ~10-11 billion people around the end of the century. Of course, historically, industrialization was one of the biggest drivers of decreasing birthrates, so as economies around the world grow and quality of life improves it's possible that stabilization will happen sooner, and naturally there's big money to made in doing so (since, if nothing else, people with a better quality of life make better consumers). Any suggestions for population control beyond "make people have more stuff so they'll want fewer kids" tend to be, uh, controversial, to say the least.

China just increased their kids limit per couple from 2 to 3.  The declining birth rate there is aging the population quickly.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 04, 2021, 10:38:02 PM
Thermogeddon has now gone mainstream...  :)
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Scott Holtzman on June 05, 2021, 06:06:24 AM
On the list of plusses I'd like to add no transmission needed in most applications. Electric motors, and their controllers, generally provide maximum torque at stall and torque decreases modestly with speed over a very wide speed range. The complete specification of motor performance is complex, much like that of audio power amplifiers, as thermal limits on multiple time-scales must be taken into account. But the result is that all current or imminent production cars and light trucks use nothing more than a fixed reduction gear between the motor and the differential, or the wheel in the case of hub motors. (There might be a trick that manufacturers can employ on dual motor vehicles which is to gear the front and rear axles differently allowing for some "transmission effect" by proportioning torque between the axles. Not sure about this but it makes sense.)

Personally, I've never been a friend of the automatic transmission and prefer to row my own when driving an IC vehicle -- hey, it's an art, and a form of personal expression ;) But with the need for variable gearing gone I don't miss those levers and pedals.

If you haven't driven a modern EV you really should give one a try. In terms of driving experience it's hard to go back.

--Frank

Oh, the best part: When your nosy no-nothing neighbor asks, "So, is it a manual or an automatic?" you can say "neither".


Frank, I had rented a few hybrids but my first Tesla experience was courtesy of you!


I love rowing through the gears too, was your Quigley a manual?


We just picked up (upon verification of condition) another Isuzu/Mitsubishi box truck, this one has the 4 cylinder diesel and a manual so it will be interesting to see who amongst our crew has the best prowess managing the energy of this highly underpowered box truck.  The torque curve comes real early and I am sure 1st gear is a crawler but it also has aj electric 2 speed rear so you could play baby semi-truck driver with a road ranger like 10 forward gear possibilities. 


Funny story I was dating this girl probable about 25 years ago that wanted to quit her teaching job and fly for a living.  She did not have her CFI yet but she was a more experienced aviator than I was at the time.  I knew it took her about 30 hours to get ready for the multi-chrck ride but I never gave it a tremendous amount of thought as she was a decent stick but didn't seem to grasp how things worked, she was a process pilot and learned procedures.  I had no interest in commenting on her flying as I had other goals and we had our little CRM thing going so no ego issues up front. 


With that background I can finish the story.  For some reason I had to drive her car and it was a super eco Honda with a manual, no tach this was a basic car.  We pulled away and I moved through the gears and then she began to admonish me and was clearly upset. She said I exceeded the shift speed, apparently the manual publishes the ideal speed (probably for economy) to change gears and I just abused her baby.  I tried to explain to her what a power band was and how you can feel when it's time to shift, when the go is gone and the RP/M's are climbing.  Well she didn't get it.  We drifted apart and I had moved back to Tampa from Jax and I get a call from my buddy where she trained.  She was out flying and had an alternator failure, didn't notice, freaked out when the electric hydraulic pump would not actuate the gear.  Somehow got the gear down and then proceeded to land with no radios at NAS Jacksonville.  The problem was not only would they not let him fix his airplane they could not permit him to depart.  He was thinking he would have to take the wings off and truck it home.  That situation resolved itself however the legal eagles had to get involved.  She still stuck with flying and eventually bought a Baron, she travels and writes about her experiences with in Cande Nast Traveler, I have caught her bi-line a few times.


That's my big manual transmission story.  Hope all is well in your world....
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 05, 2021, 12:51:47 PM
I love rowing through the gears too, was your Quigley a manual?

Hey Scott,

Happy to hear that things are picking up for your sound business. I have yet to do a post-pandemic event but at the very least I expect to drag out some gear on the 4th of July.

Sadly, the Quigley/Transit is not available with a manual in the US. It would be a blast with the 3.5 Ecoboost (Egoboost?) and a dash-mounted shift lever like the Euro-versions have. There might be some practical advantage, too, as I don't think the automatic is really up to the job thermally. At least with Quigley there's a low-range that greatly reduces the stress on the tranny when climbing steep, slow hills where the torque convertor is unlocked. The saving grace on the automatic is that the ergonomics of the range limiter buttons is really good. You rest your right hand on the big selector blob and you can diddle the up/down buttons with your thumb. Holding the up button for a couple seconds returns to full automatic glory. There's also a "tow/haul" mode but I've never found any use for it. It makes the upshift points higher but still waits too long to downshift, and the downshifts under load are never pretty. Better just to use the buttons.

When I was a young teen I wanted nothing more than to drive (audio was a close second, sex and drugs came later). After watching a tandem-axle motor coach driver taking me to summer camp run the tranny up Highway 1 along the Norcal coast I wanted nothing more than to drive something with a manual. My parents' cars were automatics which I thought was so lame. Fortunately my friend's dad had a cherished Volkswagen microbus and when he drove us around I always positioned myself in the second row bench to where I could watch his hands and feet. He was an expert driver, as it turns out, and I pretty much had all is moves before I was ever at the controls of a car myself. Soon after I turned 16 and got my license I got a 1961 Volkswagen Beetle of my own and started learning for real. I've only owned two automatics in my life, the other was also an American van.

Enough autobiography. I have to take my Biennial Flight review this afternoon. Cramming airspace, V-speeds, VFR-minimum corner cases, etc. Wish me luck ::)

--Frank
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 05, 2021, 02:03:51 PM
Last time I was in the market for a new car I scratched a few models off the list that were otherwise acceptable but they did not offer a standard transmission option... Soon that won't be the only feature unavailable.

I can just see some young kids today trying to learn how to double clutch so they can downshift into first gear with an non-syncro gear box...(like what is that old geezer even talking about?).  That seemed like a useful skill back in the 60s for street fun.

JR 
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Landon Lewsaw on June 05, 2021, 02:19:35 PM
China is the perfect case in point for how industrialization curbs population growth.  As people move into cities there, they find they can't afford to have more than one child anyway and they sure don't need them to help with the endless tasks of rural life.  Besides, the restrictions on having children were a joke as you could get around them with permits or bribes (or membership in the CCP).  Easing these restrictions won't do much. 

I've read similar things to Russ, that global population is already starting to plateau.  There's only a few parts of the world where population growth is still high, like Africa and SE Asia.  Industrialization is a huge part of the solution but the other part is the empowerment of women.  When women gain access to birth control and education, those population numbers flatten out in a hurry.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 05, 2021, 04:11:30 PM
I can just see some young kids today trying to learn how to double clutch so they can downshift into first gear with an non-syncro gear box...(like what is that old geezer even talking about?).  That seemed like a useful skill back in the 60s for street fun.

JR

In the US a manual tranny is the best anti-theft device.

As for double-clutching, in the cars I owned early on it wasn't a matter of there not being a 1st synchro, more that it failed to do anything. The habit persisted into later cars that had working synchros and I eventually decided it was an affectation and got over it. -F
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Dave Garoutte on June 05, 2021, 04:18:18 PM
Last time I was in the market for a new car I scratched a few models off the list that were otherwise acceptable but they did not offer a standard transmission option... Soon that won't be the only feature unavailable.

I can just see some young kids today trying to learn how to double clutch so they can downshift into first gear with an non-syncro gear box...(like what is that old geezer even talking about?).  That seemed like a useful skill back in the 60s for street fun.

JR

I had a Dodge D200 pickup during my MC racing days.  I used to enjoy going through the gears (4) without using the clutch, up or down.  Well truthfully. I hardly ever used first gear.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 05, 2021, 05:19:36 PM
{...} As for double-clutching, in the cars I owned early on it wasn't a matter of there not being a 1st synchro, more that it failed to do anything. The habit persisted into later cars that had working synchros and I eventually decided it was an affectation and got over it. -F

I always got the impression that the synhro on 1st is a difficult piece of engineering. I owned a current-century Camry (before a delivery driver blew a stop sign and T-boned it into a write-off) that I recall required a bit of finagling to engage first from a stop. (Reverse did too, but I'm pretty sure there wasn't even a synchro on R.)

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: dave briar on June 05, 2021, 06:56:40 PM
In the US a manual tranny is the best anti-theft device.
Last year I dropped my 95 Silverado off at a repair shop and I heard one guy call out to another to “Go get that green truck with the millennial anti-theft device”.  My son is actually very proficient at it.

I sold that truck last summer and for the first time in 52 years of driving I do not own a vehicle with a standard transmission.   Kind of sad but you know what, that six-speed CVT in my 2021 Outback sure is some magical piece of engineering.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Chris Hindle on June 05, 2021, 09:14:26 PM
I always got the impression that the synhro on 1st is a difficult piece of engineering. I owned a current-century Camry (before a delivery driver blew a stop sign and T-boned it into a write-off) that I recall required a bit of finagling to engage first from a stop. (Reverse did too, but I'm pretty sure there wasn't even a synchro on R.)

-Russ
As a retired mechanic, I can safely say that nothing has a synchro on reverse.
Simple reason, you're supposed to be at a dead stop before shifting into reverse.
Sometimes you get a wee bit of "gear clash", but it doesn't hurt anything.
You really shouldn't have problems selecting 1st  gear, in motion or not.
FYI, the synchro on 1st is no different than any other. They all go together and operate the same way.
or at least in my time, they were all the same......
I've rebuilt more than one 3 / 4 / 4+1 gearbox in my time...
Chris.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Doug Fowler on June 05, 2021, 10:21:55 PM
"Go get that green truck with the millennial anti-theft device"

Uh oh.....
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 05, 2021, 11:55:25 PM
In the US a manual tranny is the best anti-theft device.

As for double-clutching, in the cars I owned early on it wasn't a matter of there not being a 1st synchro, more that it failed to do anything. The habit persisted into later cars that had working synchros and I eventually decided it was an affectation and got over it. -F
Having helped rebuilt quite a few, there were indeed no 1st gear synchro rings in the old 3 speed gear boxes***.

I actually never "blew" a transmission, among my sundry other motor and drive train failures. One time I literally broke a transmission cover plate from trying to make the 1-2 shift too fast. The cover plate was cast iron and the boss holding the shifter actuator broke from the stress. Reverse was the outer part of first gear making them relatively heavy and hard to shift fast. 

For any of you old motor hears still playing along from home... I actually broke a "Hurst" floor shift handle and they were guaranteed for life.  8)

 JR   

*** back in the 60s I managed to find a rare all synchro 3 speed transmission. IIRC it was originally a Pontiac (GM) transmission that was used briefly on fords. I had the bad fortune of cracking a 3rd gear synchro ring, and the exotic parentage of that transmission meant that FOMOCO parts was a black hole for repair parts with months of delay. I found a junk yard synchro ring from an old Lasalle transmission but it was a little short so whenever I drove over 100 MPH the centrifugal force would wedge up the synchro alignment buttons and get the transmission stuck in 3rd gear. 
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Chris Hindle on June 06, 2021, 01:34:58 AM
Having helped rebuilt quite a few, there were indeed no 1st gear synchro rings in the old 3 speed gear boxes***.

I actually never "blew" a transmission, among my sundry other motor and drive train failures. One time I literally broke a transmission cover plate from trying to make the 1-2 shift too fast. The cover plate was cast iron and the boss holding the shifter actuator broke from the stress. Reverse was the outer part of first gear making them relatively heavy and hard to shift fast. 

For any of you old motor hears still playing along from home... I actually broke a "Hurst" floor shift handle and they were guaranteed for life.  8)

 JR   

*** back in the 60s I managed to find a rare all synchro 3 speed transmission. IIRC it was originally a Pontiac (GM) transmission that was used briefly on fords. I had the bad fortune of cracking a 3rd gear synchro ring, and the exotic parentage of that transmission meant that FOMOCO parts was a black hole for repair parts with months of delay. I found a junk yard synchro ring from an old Lasalle transmission but it was a little short so whenever I drove over 100 MPH the centrifugal force would wedge up the synchro alignment buttons and get the transmission stuck in 3rd gear.

Well, i stand corrected.
I overhauled a lot of 1970 to 1985 GM Saginaw and Muncie 3 speeds, both car and pickups.
Several Muncie and Super T-10 4 speeds (including my 1971 M-22 Rockcrusher), and a couple of 4 speed plus overdrives. All were fully synchronized in forward gears.
No synchros in first make for interesting downshifts under power.....
Chris.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Scott Holtzman on June 06, 2021, 03:50:57 AM
Hey Scott,

Happy to hear that things are picking up for your sound business. I have yet to do a post-pandemic event but at the very least I expect to drag out some gear on the 4th of July.

Sadly, the Quigley/Transit is not available with a manual in the US. It would be a blast with the 3.5 Ecoboost (Egoboost?) and a dash-mounted shift lever like the Euro-versions have. There might be some practical advantage, too, as I don't think the automatic is really up to the job thermally. At least with Quigley there's a low-range that greatly reduces the stress on the tranny when climbing steep, slow hills where the torque convertor is unlocked. The saving grace on the automatic is that the ergonomics of the range limiter buttons is really good. You rest your right hand on the big selector blob and you can diddle the up/down buttons with your thumb. Holding the up button for a couple seconds returns to full automatic glory. There's also a "tow/haul" mode but I've never found any use for it. It makes the upshift points higher but still waits too long to downshift, and the downshifts under load are never pretty. Better just to use the buttons.

When I was a young teen I wanted nothing more than to drive (audio was a close second, sex and drugs came later). After watching a tandem-axle motor coach driver taking me to summer camp run the tranny up Highway 1 along the Norcal coast I wanted nothing more than to drive something with a manual. My parents' cars were automatics which I thought was so lame. Fortunately my friend's dad had a cherished Volkswagen microbus and when he drove us around I always positioned myself in the second row bench to where I could watch his hands and feet. He was an expert driver, as it turns out, and I pretty much had all is moves before I was ever at the controls of a car myself. Soon after I turned 16 and got my license I got a 1961 Volkswagen Beetle of my own and started learning for real. I've only owned two automatics in my life, the other was also an American van.

Enough autobiography. I have to take my Biennial Flight review this afternoon. Cramming airspace, V-speeds, VFR-minimum corner cases, etc. Wish me luck ::)

--Frank


4 gigs and I netted less than $500 so it's progress not perfection.  I had a blast taking care of a friends band at a campground tonight and they smoked some fine meat so I can't complain.  I touched no carbs, no beans, no bread, not a single fry touched my lips.  I probably ate a pound of smoked turkey though so again progress not perfection.   But anyway, back to tramsmissions.  Dad had a Dodge can with an old miller welder mounted in the back with a three on the tree, I could drive that at 13.  My the time I was 16 he let me loose on the F650's and I was delivering scaffolding all over Broward county.  My first car was a Monza (a Vega in drag) with a 6 cylinder a manual trans.  It met an untimely demise when we stuffed a 400 short block in it and twisted the 10 bolt rear end, ruptured a fuel line and it burned itself to the ground in an untimely demise in an industrial area that was known for street racing activity.  The fire caught the attention of the Sunrise PD and resulted in my first room and board courtesy of some municipality.  I never was convicted of anything other that traffic misdemeanors though.  I had to get to school so my punishment was an a 1973 lincoln mark that had the back seat removed and airshocks installed so the cavernous rear area could haul a decent load of lumber or concrete.  It had the dark blue Bill Blass interior and I was able to fit 8" speakers in the door so there was something for that, I never had a single date in that vehicle.  Senior year found me working at Dad's shop and an installer and bench tech at a Motorola MSO so I was able to purchase a wrecked Z-28 camaro and with some other creative activities I had the front clip on 8 coats of gorgeous lacquer (I can't remember if we ever shot a clear coat) but the lacquer was shot over a white base and the car was stunning.  A 350 LT-1 (4 bolt mains and forged pistons), crane street roller 1.93 heads, edelbrock/holley on the top, an MSD ignition, muncie m22, 12 bolt rear with summers upgrades and a 4" narrowing to tuck the M/T 50 series completely under the factory fenders, a fuel cell and rear roll cage along with a set of recaro's out of a mustang, 10 channels of A/D/S amps and speakers in biamp glory and I had a real ride that was paid off before I left for camp tampa and intensive study of System V Unix.  I had a lot of fun in my teenage years. 


So that's my walk down memory lane with my ridiculously clear memory of all of that nonsense.  I will add that in 1994 I flew out to Tempe and bought a BMW 735 sedan with a 5 speed.  The 5 series just could not keep me comfortable on long drives and less that 100 of the big sedans were ordered that year with a manual.  I found one that someone had put a deposit on then could not obtain financing, that was a fun car and evaporated in divorce #1 (and only).  I also had a 1987 Dodge RAM minivan with a 5 speed that was a blast even with a four cylinder. 


 I am driving an Acadia now so no automotive excitement in my life. 



Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Landon Lewsaw on June 06, 2021, 10:50:51 AM
What a weird thread!

I was a professional gearjammer for 18 years, loved the art of rowing through the gears in an 18 speed.  Lots of fun to perfect, but they're disappearing even in that world.  Teaching my 15 year old to drive our five speed Corolla this summer, and I keep telling him this will be like a superpower to you.  No chance that he will be passing the skill on to his kid one day.  Something like 1.5% of vehicles in N.A. are manual now - once sports cars went automatic the end became very near.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Hiemburg on June 06, 2021, 12:34:23 PM
[size=78%]I am driving an Acadia now so no automotive excitement in my life. [/size]


Sorry, I LOL'ed. This was the ultimate *sad trombone noises* quote of the weekend on PSW.


True: Car manufacturing has mastered the art of perfectly acceptable and totally unremarkable. There's a lot of refinement and comfort in even very humdrum brands these days, but precious little excitement to be found.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Dan Mortensen on June 06, 2021, 01:45:05 PM
Back to the electric car thread:

Back in the days when I had an income, I looked around at electric cars and bought a new 2018 Kia Soul Electric. For them, it was a "compliance car", meaning that they were only building them and only building enough of them to get their fleet miles-per-gallon to some number acceptable to whoever was counting. I bought mine in May and by June there were none to be found in America, or so I heard. They didn't build any the next year, and only a few the year after that. Don't think they built any this year, they have a new model altogether coming out that's bigger and less truck-like.

It's a cute little car with a hatchback and squared off back, so the load-carrying area is nearly a rectangular cube. I can fit a decent little PA in there, and it mostly has no problem with 500# or so.

I got it to be an in-city car, and for that it's really, really great. Fits in the tiniest parking places, doesn't care if I'm driving for 4 minutes to the destination, letting it sit for a couple hours, then driving 4 minutes back.

Getting stuck in a traffic jam is no problem because it just sits there, not consuming electricity other than the stereo.

Quiet, lots of acceleration when necessary, comfortable by my standards. List price was whatever it was (US$30k maybe), but the real price was just over 25, and doing a lease first for 6 months and then paying it off brought it down significantly from there, for some reason.

Since I had lots of money at that time, I put in a level 2 (240v, 50 amp) charging station next to our parking spaces, in a real roadside utility box like you see all over the place for street lights and things like that, with a beefy integrated lock.

Range on a full charge started out at 133 miles and is down to 127 now, which is plenty for my purposes.

Full charge on a level 1 charger (120v 20amp) was about 16 hours from 20% or so (scary to get below that, as who knows how really accurate the mileage-left meter is), and is under 4 hours with the level 2.

We've not tried to do any cross-country trips, because we have a Honda CRV that is super comfortable and easy to drive and fill up, and we don't take cross-country trips much, anyway. The Soul's ride is a little choppy at highway speeds for a long time, too, IMO.

The joys of not having to do oil changes, spark plugs, timing and timing belts, transmission fluid, radiator/fluid, etc. etc. etc. are immense, and this is clearly the future, which can't come too soon for me.

It does have its little weirdnesses, like the fact there there are two batteries in it: the one the propels the car, and the one that powers all the electronics. The former one you have a big read out showing charge/mileage left; the latter has no indicator AT ALL. So if you don't drive your car at all for 3 months, all of a sudden nothing works and you don't know why. Once you know about that, you start to pay attention so it stops being a problem. I hope.

That said, a 5000 mile checkup consists of looking for tire wear and changing the in-cabin air filter.

7500 is rotating the tires.

I figure that by the time the main batteries die (10 year warranty on that, btw), it'll be time to get the newest thing anyway.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 06, 2021, 06:07:48 PM
It does have its little weirdnesses, like the fact there there are two batteries in it: the one the propels the car, and the one that powers all the electronics. The former one you have a big read out showing charge/mileage left; the latter has no indicator AT ALL. So if you don't drive your car at all for 3 months, all of a sudden nothing works and you don't know why. Once you know about that, you start to pay attention so it stops being a problem. I hope.

That's a great review. You understand the car's virtues and use them to good effect.

I find the need for two batteries an interesting subject. When I first started learning about the current crop of BEVs, say 10 years ago, I was disappointed to learn that they all used a 12 V "car battery" in addition to the traction battery. I thought it was just the manufacturers cheaping-out so that they could use conventional 12 V accessories -- lights, controls, entertainment systems, etc. -- to ease into the new designs. This is true to some extent. But when I began to study the Tesla I learned of the requirement to completely disconnect the traction battery for safety. The traction battery assembly has 2 high-power contactors built into it that are pulled in by the 12V battery. When the car is off or at any sign of trouble the contactors let go isolating the traction battery. It all makes sense now.

In the case of Tesla the 12 V, which is a deep-cycle AGM type, is kept topped off by the traction battery. When the car is sitting it goes clunk every few hours as the contactors pull in for a few minutes to allow the 12 V to charge. The off-state load on the 12 V, at least in the case of my car, is something like 30 W to keep all the damn computers and radios going. (There is a "power-saver" mode that reduces this somewhat at the expense of a slower turn-on.) For a while Tesla was having problems with short life on the 12 V because it was subject to so many deep cycles. Between a switch of battery vendor and maybe some change in the charging rules they appear to have fixed the problem. I'm on either my first or second 12 V after 6 years -- dunno if they changed it at my "4 year service".

There has been talk of going to a Li battery for the 12 V but then there are concerns of cold-soaked performance. You need a working 12 V to thermally manage the traction battery when it's cold out. So lead-acids may be around for a while.

One funny consequence is that, much like CD-players not putting an end to skipping records, BEVs can still have a "dead battery" requiring a jump. The Tesla is indeed equipped with jump terminals for the 12 V and I keep a set of jumpers in the car just in case.

--Frank
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Riley Casey on June 06, 2021, 08:29:39 PM
Asking for a jump on a Tesla embarrassment factor 10x.

...The Tesla is indeed equipped with jump terminals for the 12 V and I keep a set of jumpers in the car just in case.

--Frank
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Stephen Swaffer on June 07, 2021, 01:54:48 PM
I work in a facility that has a small fleet of forklifts about evenly divided between LP and electric.  We have purchased new of each in the last few years.  We typically use the electrics in departments (shipping) that run hard for one shift, then sit overnight.  The LP's are used for departments with a less regular usage schedule, but they work around the clock-so a consistent charging schedule would be a nightmare to manage.

Comparing the two, often I prefer the electric for various reasons-smoothness of acceleration and consistent power being the most noticeable.  Maintenance wise, I really don't have a great handle on cost-most has to do with other than propulsion issues anyway-tires/mechanical wear.

I found it interesting in a conversation with forklift pro's they equated the electric battery to the engine.  Thinking about that, when I was a teen a car with 100,000 miles on it was pretty worn out-now a days 200-300K is not unusual.  Of course, mileage plays a big part in the value of a used vehicle.  Perhaps it will be an adjustment as we learn to equate "odometer miles" to expected battery life?  While it is not unheard of to replace an engine or transmission-it is also not uncommon for one or the other's failure's to be the ultimate reason for a vehicle being scrapped.  Perhaps batteries would be the same-available, but not always a viable option?

Just like forklifts, I feel like the individual application should dictate the choice.  Often times it seems like heated pro/con debates-whether audio/ev or whatever revolve around some of the people involved thinking everyone's situation is the same as theirs.  Life is always better when there are options.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Jonathan Johnson on June 07, 2021, 03:18:47 PM
My learner's car was a 1970 Datsun pickup that was 17 years old and very tired when I started. The linkage on the 4-speed shifter flopped like a wet noodle. You couldn't tell what gear it was in by the position of the shifter. Actually, you could once you became very familiar with the rig -- even though the flop far overlapped the different positions, you could tell by where it flopped.

The steering was also... interesting. It was necessary to steer it down a straight road, because it would not travel in a straight line. Not even a predictable pull one way or the other.

Windshield wipers? Yes, they worked, but you learned how to shut them off at the precise bottom of the stroke because they didn't park anymore.

The turn signal switch broke, so a toggle switch on the dash served that purpose.

The funniest thing was that, for as long as we owned the pickup (it was my oldest brother's, then he sold it to my dad, who sold it to the middle brother, who sold it to dad, who sold it to me), the gas gauge always read low. We learned to go by mileage, not trust the gauge, for when to fill up. Then one day I was idly wiggling some wires (fidgeting), and after that, the gas gauge read true.

It had various problems that any old car of that era had. The brakes were rebuilt several times. Had to rebuild the clutch slave cylinder when that went out -- drove home gearjamming, starting from stop with the starter. (It was actually very easy to shift without the clutch.)

Replaced the radiator cap -- that was a mistake. That blew the radiator, which I then had to replace.

Four-tone paint: baby blue, rust, primer gray, and moss.

Amazing thing is that the engine was never opened up, neither was the tranny. Original clutch the whole time.

Finally got rid of in 1996, traded it for a brand new Dodge Ram 1500. (Funny story: when I was signing papers, the GM stormed in demanding to know why that "piece of shit" was parked in front of his dealership.) They gave me 50 bucks for it, I think they got the raw end of the deal. Said goodbye at 220,000 miles and 26 years.

The Dodge has 220,000 miles and is now 25 years old. It's in far, far better shape.

In the market for another pickup, the Dodge doesn't have enough seats for the family. It's also a 5-speed, and my wife doesn't drive manual transmission. I tried to teach her once; quickly decided it was better for the marriage not to. But, given the current market, I'm probably best waiting until the supply chain problems are resolved before I buy another rig.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 07, 2021, 03:49:17 PM
My learner's car was a 1970 Datsun pickup that was 17 years old and very tired when I started. The linkage on the 4-speed shifter flopped like a wet noodle. You couldn't tell what gear it was in by the position of the shifter. Actually, you could once you became very familiar with the rig -- even though the flop far overlapped the different positions, you could tell by where it flopped.
those cars were known for racking up lots of mileage
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The steering was also... interesting. It was necessary to steer it down a straight road, because it would not travel in a straight line. Not even a predictable pull one way or the other.
worn steering box, back lash/slop in the rack and pinion causes it to alternately veer one way or the other... I had an old ford with that problem.
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Windshield wipers? Yes, they worked, but you learned how to shut them off at the precise bottom of the stroke because they didn't park anymore.

The turn signal switch broke, so a toggle switch on the dash served that purpose.
I have a flaky turn signal in my current daily driver (going on 24 years old).... Luckily they stopped the annual inspections where I had to wiggle the handle until it worked.
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The funniest thing was that, for as long as we owned the pickup (it was my oldest brother's, then he sold it to my dad, who sold it to the middle brother, who sold it to dad, who sold it to me), the gas gauge always read low. We learned to go by mileage, not trust the gauge, for when to fill up. Then one day I was idly wiggling some wires (fidgeting), and after that, the gas gauge read true.
I used to depend on my trip odometer for when to fill up, but that stopped working several years ago... I trust my gas gauge as far as I can throw it, so I top off the tank when it gets close to 1/2.
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It had various problems that any old car of that era had. The brakes were rebuilt several times. Had to rebuild the clutch slave cylinder when that went out -- drove home gearjamming, starting from stop with the starter. (It was actually very easy to shift without the clutch.)
neutral to first is rough without using a clutch... if you have to you can sometimes start the car already in 1st gear. I had to do that the last time I blew a clutch and it wouldn't disengage. 
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Replaced the radiator cap -- that was a mistake. That blew the radiator, which I then had to replace.

Four-tone paint: baby blue, rust, primer gray, and moss.

Amazing thing is that the engine was never opened up, neither was the tranny. Original clutch the whole time.
I'm still on original clutch and brakes, but I don't wear much of either.
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Finally got rid of in 1996, traded it for a brand new Dodge Ram 1500. (Funny story: when I was signing papers, the GM stormed in demanding to know why that "piece of shit" was parked in front of his dealership.) They gave me 50 bucks for it, I think they got the raw end of the deal. Said goodbye at 220,000 miles and 26 years.

The Dodge has 220,000 miles and is now 25 years old. It's in far, far better shape.
over the years Chrysler engineering has vacillated between over engineering and under engineering vehicles. I owned one over engineered 1966 barracuda that I put a bazillion miles on. The speedo didn't work when I bought it used years earlier. The body parts we just about falling off but the small v8/auto drive train was still rock solid when I released it back to the wild. I even won a trophy at the drag strip with it, when on a lark I pulled off the air filter, borrowed a helmet, and won HS/A (H stock automatic). Not that remarkable, all the serious car guys were doing bracket racing that day, so I actually turned a faster time than the F stocker I matched up against, which was not very fast. 
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In the market for another pickup, the Dodge doesn't have enough seats for the family. It's also a 5-speed, and my wife doesn't drive manual transmission. I tried to teach her once; quickly decided it was better for the marriage not to. But, given the current market, I'm probably best waiting until the supply chain problems are resolved before I buy another rig.
I saw a report that major brand used cars are up something like 35-40%, probably smart to wait a bit longer for prices to moderate but I expect inflation to be with us even after that.

JR 
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Brian Jojade on June 07, 2021, 06:25:10 PM
I got it to be an in-city car, and for that it's really, really great. Fits in the tiniest parking places, doesn't care if I'm driving for 4 minutes to the destination, letting it sit for a couple hours, then driving 4 minutes back.

Funny thing is the vast majority of driving is this exact scenario, and that's where electrics shine.  The current issue with electrics is for how to deal with charging on cross country trips.  It's hilarious how some people freak out that an electric car couldn't do that, but when asked when the last time they put more than 200 miles on their car in a single day, most wouldn't be able to even remember....

If you have more than one vehicle, an electric in your fleet makes sense. Or, if you plan to take a trip, rental cars are the way to go.  Rental cars are relatively inexpensive, and when you factor in the wear and tear of your own vehicle, a rental for a cross country trip is a no brainer.

I love my Chevy Volt though, because it contains the best of both worlds.  It's got enough electric go get me around town.  Rarely do I need to put gas in it.  But, if I need to go somewhere, I just fill up the tank and go!  Kind of a bummer that they killed it off, but it does make sense, as having both electric and gas in the vehicle is more expensive of an option.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Daniel Levi on June 08, 2021, 01:57:52 AM
Asking for a jump on a Tesla embarrassment factor 10x.

Even worse, Tesla do not fit an emergency key hole so if the 12V battery goes flat you have to pull away bits of lining in the wheel arches to get to the emergency opening mechanism.
James May has the 12V battery go flat in his Tesla and had to go through all this faff.

My step-mum has an Ioniq hybrid and it's a great vehicle, plus no only does it have an emergency key hole, assuming there is some charge in the traction battery it can be used to start the vehicle if the 12V battery goes flat, Hyundai really knew what they were doing there.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Frank Koenig on June 08, 2021, 10:55:56 AM
Even worse, Tesla do not fit an emergency key hole so if the 12V battery goes flat you have to pull away bits of lining in the wheel arches to get to the emergency opening mechanism.
James May has the 12V battery go flat in his Tesla and had to go through all this faff.

My step-mum has an Ioniq hybrid and it's a great vehicle, plus no only does it have an emergency key hole, assuming there is some charge in the traction battery it can be used to start the vehicle if the 12V battery goes flat, Hyundai really knew what they were doing there.

While getting a "bricked" Tesla started is no picnic (and I agree there's no excuse for that), in fairness the health of the 12 V is monitored and the car alerts you if it is getting weak. In most instances you get some warning of an impending failure, which is better than many ICVs.

It's interesting that the Ioniq can bootstrap off the traction battery. I wonder how they do that. Do they have a buck-convertor (DC-DC voltage reducer) integral with the battery pack that's upstream of the main contactors? If it fails how do you disconnect it from the traction battery? Does the traction battery power the contactors itself? Then what controls that? Not saying it can't be done -- it is -- but the engineer wonders how.

--Frank
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 08, 2021, 12:16:22 PM
While getting a "bricked" Tesla started is no picnic (and I agree there's no excuse for that), in fairness the health of the 12 V is monitored and the car alerts you if it is getting weak. In most instances you get some warning of an impending failure, which is better than many ICVs.
what do you mean no warning? My check engine light has been lit for years...

JR
Quote
It's interesting that the Ioniq can bootstrap off the traction battery. I wonder how they do that. Do they have a buck-convertor (DC-DC voltage reducer) integral with the battery pack that's upstream of the main contactors? If it fails how do you disconnect it from the traction battery? Does the traction battery power the contactors itself? Then what controls that? Not saying it can't be done -- it is -- but the engineer wonders how.

--Frank
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Daniel Levi on June 08, 2021, 01:57:18 PM
It would appear that the Ioniq hasn't got a 12V Lead-acid battery, it's a separate part of the traction battery pack.

Here's a video from Hyundai on how to get in and start an Ioniq with a dead 12V battery.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXVY1Isl31o
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Randy Pence on June 09, 2021, 07:25:39 PM
An elephant in the room with all of this is the need for people to drive at all. In western populations, too many live too far apart and necessitate large clunky objects on wide roads to do simple things like get to work or a loaf of bread. In our industry and others managing logistics it is unavoidable to use powered vehicles to transport gear, but it is totally possible to otherwise almost never need a vehicle by living in cities with adequate cycling and public transportation infrastructure. Having grown up in typical suburbs and then living in nyc and berlin for the last 23 years, it is mind-boggling how dependent living with more personal space makes having a car. I haven't driven in 18 years and have been absolutely stranded when visiting my family in the states.

Imagine all the resources used for personal vehicle transportation used for other things.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Stephen Swaffer on June 10, 2021, 12:37:23 PM
An elephant in the room with all of this is the need for people to drive at all. In western populations, too many live too far apart and necessitate large clunky objects on wide roads to do simple things like get to work or a loaf of bread. In our industry and others managing logistics it is unavoidable to use powered vehicles to transport gear, but it is totally possible to otherwise almost never need a vehicle by living in cities with adequate cycling and public transportation infrastructure. Having grown up in typical suburbs and then living in nyc and berlin for the last 23 years, it is mind-boggling how dependent living with more personal space makes having a car. I haven't driven in 18 years and have been absolutely stranded when visiting my family in the states.

Imagine all the resources used for personal vehicle transportation used for other things.

This is something I have thought about often-and my dad even brought up-when I first moved to a house (and then purchased a house a mile down the road) 13 miles from town on a gravel road.  The road is now paved-though to get to work I drive roughly a mile on gravel every day.  The cost of driving to town, wear and tear on vehicles and tires has not been insignificant for sure-but it's a personal tradeoff I purposely chose that allowed me to raise my kids the way I wanted.  My house is nothing special-but I like not being able to see another house from mine.  Spooking deer out of my yard, or having a pheasant cackle as I leave the house is an enjoyable way to start my day.  For a number of years we raised our own pork among other things.  We have gone short periods of time without a vehicle at our immediate disposal-such as a trip to Washington DC a few years back where we relied on public transportation for several days.

To each his own-I'm glad those that enjoy the city/urban life have that opportunity. I understand there are a lot of people that end up living the way they do without purposely choosing it-but it's not my place to tell them how to live.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 10, 2021, 02:47:59 PM
An elephant in the room with all of this is the need for people to drive at all. In western populations, too many live too far apart and necessitate large clunky objects on wide roads to do simple things like get to work or a loaf of bread. In our industry and others managing logistics it is unavoidable to use powered vehicles to transport gear, but it is totally possible to otherwise almost never need a vehicle by living in cities with adequate cycling and public transportation infrastructure. Having grown up in typical suburbs and then living in nyc and berlin for the last 23 years, it is mind-boggling how dependent living with more personal space makes having a car. I haven't driven in 18 years and have been absolutely stranded when visiting my family in the states.

Imagine all the resources used for personal vehicle transportation used for other things.

I live in the suburbs and like it here, yard, trees, dogs, space for my operation.  Compartmentalized living works for some, that's great - not for me.  I ride a small dirt bike on short runs in the area - Kawaskaki KLX140 - probably about as energy efficient as anything else.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 10, 2021, 03:28:37 PM
{...} To each his own-I'm glad those that enjoy the city/urban life have that opportunity. I understand there are a lot of people that end up living the way they do without purposely choosing it-but it's not my place to tell them how to live.

In my mind, the real elephant that Randy is alluding to is not about lifestyle, it's about cost. In addition to the explicit, internalized cost of living in the suburbs/exurbs that Stephen just mentioned, there tend to be lots of externalized costs as well. People who live in the suburbs expect a certain level of public services (roads/water/sewage/police/fire/etc.), but those services are very expensive to provide in low-density areas, and it's not uncommon for a property's individual tax base to not cover even a fraction of the costs of providing those services. Municipality insolvency is starting to become a real problem, and a lot of ties back to infrastructure that doesn't create enough additional value to pay for its own maintenance.

I agree that it's not my place to tell anyone how to live, but I think it's important for people to at least be aware that certain lifestyles come at a much higher cost than others, and sooner or later those costs will have to be paid.

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 10, 2021, 05:26:00 PM
In my mind, the real elephant that Randy is alluding to is not about lifestyle, it's about cost. In addition to the explicit, internalized cost of living in the suburbs/exurbs that Stephen just mentioned, there tend to be lots of externalized costs as well. People who live in the suburbs expect a certain level of public services (roads/water/sewage/police/fire/etc.), but those services are very expensive to provide in low-density areas, and it's not uncommon for a property's individual tax base to not cover even a fraction of the costs of providing those services. Municipality insolvency is starting to become a real problem, and a lot of ties back to infrastructure that doesn't create enough additional value to pay for its own maintenance.

I agree that it's not my place to tell anyone how to live, but I think it's important for people to at least be aware that certain lifestyles come at a much higher cost than others, and sooner or later those costs will have to be paid.

-Russ

So, you're suggesting municipal agencies are allocating and providing services at a below cost rate.  They shouldn't do that and it was a mistake at the onset and constitutes municipal mismanagement.

It's a bit different where I live.  Lots of high density housing embedded within the single family and duplexes in this area.  Most of the children in this 50's-60's spec home area live in the apartments.  I will guarantee you that the property tax rate in the high density apartment complexes pale in comparison to what the homeowners are saddled with.  In this case, we're paying the lions share for municipal services that we all use.  Trash, sewer, water, police, schools.  I guarantee you around these parts the rate for single family property tax is orders of magnitude higher than in apartments.  Whenever that topic comes up at a neighborhood association meeting with our district supervisor in attendance it gets danced around and avoided.  As does the bill for law enforcement in the high density housing areas.

If a city/county board of supervisors can't manage their municipalities, the solution isn't government imposed high density housing.  Cities that are insolvent are in thqat predicament because of mismanagement not lifestyle.  That's what needs to be addressed.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 10, 2021, 06:30:33 PM
So, you're suggesting municipal agencies are allocating and providing services at a below cost rate.  They shouldn't do that and it was a mistake at the onset and constitutes municipal mismanagement.

It's a bit different where I live.  Lots of high density housing embedded within the single family and duplexes in this area.  Most of the children in this 50's-60's spec home area live in the apartments.  I will guarantee you that the property tax rate in the high density apartment complexes pale in comparison to what the homeowners are saddled with.  In this case, we're paying the lions share for municipal services that we all use.  Trash, sewer, water, police, schools.  I guarantee you around these parts the rate for single family property tax is orders of magnitude higher than in apartments.  Whenever that topic comes up at a neighborhood association meeting with our district supervisor in attendance it gets danced around and avoided.  As does the bill for law enforcement in the high density housing areas.

If a city/county board of supervisors can't manage their municipalities, the solution isn't government imposed high density housing.  Cities that are insolvent are in thqat predicament because of mismanagement not lifestyle.  That's what needs to be addressed.

It's actually pretty typical, especially since municipalities tend to think of roads and sewers as "assets" instead the future-replacement-cost liabilities they actually are. For better or for worse, a road is effectively a perpetual promise that it will always be there, at which point the municipality doesn't "own" the road, they are merely responsible for paying for its upkeep and replacement literally forever.

As for the low-density properties subsidizing the high-density ones, if this is true in your location it would make your civic taxation structure basically unique in the world. The largest costs a municipality faces are infrastructure-related, and the cost of maintaining the infrastructure to support an acre of development is basically the same regardless of whether that acre contains one household or one thousand. An apartment-dweller who shares their acre with 100 other households might have an annual tax bill that is 1/10th that of someone who has an acre all to themselves, but that still means the apartment acre overall is putting 10 times as much money into municipal coffers as the acreage while only needing approximately the same amount of expensive roads and sewers.

Sure, police/fire/garbage/schools cost money too, and those costs do tend to scale with population (although there's always a geographic component as well), but in the end it's almost always infrastructure (or the debt taken on to maintain it) that puts cities out of business.

To be clear, I absolutely agree that this is mismanagement, and I'm not suggesting for a second that the government impose anything on anyone. All I'm suggesting is that low-density development is not nearly as affordable as it's been made out to be, and sooner or later I'd expect that pure economics (perhaps as the result of less government intervention) will start to encourage increased density and decreased car-dependence.

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 10, 2021, 06:51:44 PM
I think I'll sideline this one Russ.  I'd like to see the math formula for education, local taxes paid per household in apartments -vs- houses -vs- schooling costs per student.

It's doesn't add up in my book using the rate per acre formula, as there are more students per acre.  Per household for school taxes is a lot lower in an apartment.  More students per acre, more toilets per acre, more crime per acre, more trash per acre, etc....

I'd perhaps entertain owning a small battery powered runabout, as I ride the dirt bike around the area but only in good weather.  However, they'll have to pry the keys to the Hemi from my cold dead fingers.

Cheers to ya!  :)
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Brian Jojade on June 10, 2021, 07:35:59 PM
The more detailed you look at how things are spread across taxpayers, the more you may see that they are unfair in many ways.  If you have 2 pieces of land right next to each other, and one has a tiny shack on it, and the other a large mansion, the property tax bill for the mansion is much much higher. Does it cost the city any different to provide services to those locations? No.

What's even more unfair is that in many areas, you have the primary city, which the taxpayers of the city foot the bill for a lot of services, an then you have suburbs, which are right outside of an imaginary line. Those residents often get to enjoy lower taxes because their suburb town isn't required to provide all of the services that the city does, but in the event that they need access to said services, they are only a short distance away.

That being said, I do agree that those that choose to live in rural areas should be taxed more appropriately according to the cost of providing necessary services to those areas.  Internet service is a great example of this as well. The cost to provide internet service to an area is about the same for a single household as it is an entire neighborhood, but now we're talking about subsidizing the costs of internet to those that chose to live away from the service area.  It's one of those things where your choices should come with the appropriate different costs needed for that choice.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 10, 2021, 09:31:46 PM
I think I'll sideline this one Russ.  I'd like to see the math formula for education, local taxes paid per household in apartments -vs- houses -vs- schooling costs per student.

It's doesn't add up in my book using the rate per acre formula, as there are more students per acre.  Per household for school taxes is a lot lower in an apartment.  More students per acre, more toilets per acre, more crime per acre, more trash per acre, etc....
{...}

I can give you a local example (well, "local" is relative in a province that's roughly the size of Texas): at some point in the next month, the Village of Hythe, Alberta will cease to exist. That, on its own, isn't hugely remarkable (rural municipalities have been dying since the popularization of the car), except that Hythe still has about 850 people living there (which, in Alberta, is almost enough to become a town).

Hythe's ~850 residents pay just shy of $900k in property taxes every year, which covers all the usually basic services and, in theory, infrastructure maintenance. So what's the problem? Well, last year, an engineering report indicated that keeping all the Village's roads and sewers in a state of good repair was going to cost nearly $15 million over the next decade. Put another way, just to maintain the existing infrastructure would require property taxes to nearly triple overnight. In response, the residents of the Village voted 95% in favour of dissolution, with the area reverting back to the direct control of the surrounding county. (Although, of course, dissolution doesn't actually solve anything, since there's still only ~$1 million in tax revenue in the area to pay for $1.5 million per year in infrastructure maintenance, let alone services.)

If it's something you're at all curious about, I'd encourage you to check out the book (and now organization) "Strong Towns". The author (a municipal engineer and land-use planner) breaks down municipal finance through the lens of "everyone must pay their own way", and the conclusions he comes to are eye-opening. (I don't necessarily agree with everything in it, mind you; it is, after all, the kind of book that very rationally explains why married women entering the workforce en mass was, in purely economic terms, bad for the average American.)

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 10, 2021, 09:45:27 PM
^^^ Yes, understood.  Our leaders have run the train off the tracks.  Underfunded retirement plans and on and on - the basic infrastructure is in a shambles and crumbling and more and more on the govt. dole.  There are towns in California, 60 miles south of where I grew up in Fresno that went without municipal water for a couple of years.  California is busy building a bullet train.  Makes no sense at all and the media has in large part ignored it.

https://www.visaliatimesdelta.com/story/news/2018/02/27/east-porterville-gets-water-some-regret/375061002/

Regardless, I'm keeping the Hemi.  :)

Good discussion.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Jonathan Johnson on June 11, 2021, 01:42:32 PM
Taxes are, almost by definition, unfair. Some pay more in taxes than they receive in benefit; others pay less than they receive. There will never -- can never -- be a tax that is truly "fair."

If they were fair, there wouldn't be any taxes and everybody would contribute only what's necessary for their own benefit -- but everybody would be a little worse off. We probably wouldn't have paved roads, let alone gravel. Well, maybe you'd have a paved road in front of YOUR house that becomes dirt when it passes your neighbor's house. How will your BEV manage on a western-Oregon dirt road after three months of winter rains? Taxes are necessary for infrastructure that benefits us but which would not be workable as individual, interconnected parts.

Oh, we'll just make infrastructure maintenance private instead of public, you say? So then you are forced to pay maintenance fees to a private company or HOA instead of the local government, and that makes it not a tax somehow? Haha, tell me again how you don't pay "taxes."

So we have taxes because society, in general, benefits from the forced extrication of cash from individuals. And, as a result, areas of low-density assessment are subsidized by areas of high-density assessment. A mile of roadway in an urban or suburban area costs $2X to build, while in a rural area it's only $X (very rough numbers; consider that rural areas generally don't have sidewalks and streetlights and underground utilities). But the urban area has higher assessment density; if the rural area is $Y of assessment per mile of roadway, the urban area may be $10Y. So the urban area ends up subsidizing the rural area. That's the nature of property taxes as they are currently structured.

(What would be more equitable? By taxing according to road frontage? My neighbor has a thousand feet of frontage. I have thirty. Our use of the road is the same. But I travel a thousand more feet on my way to town, so maybe I should pay more since I'm further from services? What about the town in the other direction?)

But those in the urban area might still benefit by subsidizing the roads in the rural area: those roads enable more produce from the rural areas to be brought to market more easily, increasing the selection of goods at lower prices.

(Of course, the above is an idealized description. Reality is far, far messier.)

One more thought: there is some (perhaps anectodal) evidence that while a paved road is more expensive to build than gravel, the maintenance costs are much, much lower. A well-built paved road could be cheaper in the long term.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: W. Mark Hellinger on June 12, 2021, 02:54:02 PM
So, you're suggesting municipal agencies are allocating and providing services at a below cost rate.  They shouldn't do that and it was a mistake at the onset and constitutes municipal mismanagement.

Good discussion.  I've approached this relative subject with our local town council, as a sitting council member.  The matter was having to do with an LID street dust abatement proposal that benefitted relatively few of the total community that would be paying the bill.  Council was all for it collectively (except myself)… and I asked:  If this is such a good idea, how many of you would voluntarily pay for that exact service of the street directly in-front of your house?  And if you would, why haven't you already?  Because you sure could have just as I did to the streets bordering my house, but I decided to not continue the dust abatement because I couldn't justify the cost benefit after trying it.  Silence.  Then I asked:  Why would you consider imposing costs on the public that you personally wouldn't fund on an individual cost/benefit basis?  Silence.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 12, 2021, 03:00:53 PM
Good discussion.  I've approached this relative subject with our local town council, as a sitting council member.  The matter was having to do with an LID street dust abatement proposal that benefitted relatively few of the total community that would be paying the bill.  Council was all for it collectively (except myself)… and I asked:  If this is such a good idea, how many of you would voluntarily pay for that exact service of the street directly in-front of your house?  And if you would, why haven't you already?  Because you sure could have just as I did to the streets bordering my house, but I decided to not continue the dust abatement because I couldn't justify the cost benefit after trying it.  Silence.  Then I asked:  Why would you consider imposing costs on the public that you personally wouldn't fund on an individual cost/benefit basis?  Silence.
OPM, politicians love spending "Other people's money".

JR

PS: Ironic perhaps but some politicians are paying for their own private security while defunding the police. (I'll stop now and apologize in advance).
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Doug Fowler on June 12, 2021, 05:25:39 PM
OPM, politicians love spending "Other people's money".

JR

PS: Ironic perhaps but some politicians are paying for their own private security while defunding the police. (I'll stop now and apologize in advance).

Good idea JR, let's not go there.

In Saint Louis County there approx. 88 municipalities/unincorporated areas.   Many of them are small fiefdoms, to the extent of having their own police departments.  There have been efforts to consolidate (STL City is not part of STL County).  Quite a few of the fiefdoms elect the same officials time and time again.  Someone could do a deep dive on not only the fiefdoms, but the "should city and county merge" question and find plenty of material.

It's a hot mess but (AFAIK) voters have never had a chance to weigh in on this.  One municipality (Bel Air I believe) just made a deal with a neighbor to provide fire department service.  Some other arrangements exist for law enforcement.  Overall IMO and plenty of others as well believe this should be "fixed" (apply your own definition here), send whatever revenue is collected to STL County, and let STL County police handle LEO.  Fire/EMS could be handled the same way.   The police stations are there, the fire stations are there, just rebadge everything "Saint Louis County", and fund appropriately.

I currently live in STL City, we have our own set of problems lol.



Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: W. Mark Hellinger on June 12, 2021, 06:27:51 PM
OPM, politicians love spending "Other people's money".

The 4 ways money's spent: 
1)  You're spending your money on yourself.
2)  You're spending your money on somebody else.
3)  You're spending somebody else's money on yourself.
4)  You're spending somebody else's money on somebody else.

To the OT:  The 10KW solar panels on my roof more-than-likely wouldn't be there if it wasn't for our state's alt-energy incentive program.  I'll admit I was torn in my decision to purchase them, well knowing how it penciled out and who's paying the substantial portion that otherwise wouldn't have penciled out in the open market, while also knowing that I'd be a chump to not jump on the bandwagon... cause if I didn't jump on the bandwagon, I'd be one of those "walking" while in-part paying for the others who are riding the bandwagon.

In the past I've supplied the stage production (sound, lights, backline) for an annual festival in a nearby "golf" town:  Small town with really nice golf courses.  That town permits golf carts on the public streets... and during the suitable weather months there's electric golf carts "everywhere" in that town... typically more golf carts at the town's shopping center than vehicles... and it is nice:  Quiet, no parking problems, folks waving and smiling puttering around in their golf carts... none of them speeding... no golf cart cookie burnout tracks on the pavement.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 12, 2021, 06:42:29 PM
^^^ We won't even touch the socioeconomic elements of Shangrila.  Cuz where I'm at, many vacated apartments that were filled with military and defense workers in the 80's, downturn of the 90's - city found a great place to house Section 8 _____.  Today 20+ years into that condition, and now it's the typical throw more tax dollars at the problem - $3M traffic circle (lipstick on the pig) and converted YMCA with another $7M tax dollars for a community center.  No golf carts around here, plenty of hoopties though.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 12, 2021, 07:16:33 PM
I think I'll sideline this one Russ.  I'd like to see the math formula for education, local taxes paid per household in apartments -vs- houses -vs- schooling costs per student.

It's doesn't add up in my book using the rate per acre formula, as there are more students per acre.  Per household for school taxes is a lot lower in an apartment.  More students per acre, more toilets per acre, more crime per acre, more trash per acre, etc....
{...}

I was thinking more about this:

Let's say our municipality needs one teacher and one classroom for every 25 students. Well, obviously, these costs increase directly with the number of students, which will (roughly) track total population. Of course, now you have to get those students to and from school, and suddenly cost-per-acre rears its head (heck, if an acre has 1000 students on it, you just build the school there and the kids can walk). Garbage is an even more glaring example: the cost of garbage collection is primarily in the salaries of the people doing the collecting, and it takes them almost as long to collect the garbage for my one house as it does for them to collect the garbage for the whole 12-story apartment building I used to live in. Heck, even policing cost, while mostly population-driven, has an area component, since it costs more officer time (and vehicle wear-and-tear) if all the crime scenes are spread further apart.

(Just to see, I tried to take a look at the Fort Worth city budget but I give up; why is it so complicated?)

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Matthias McCready on June 12, 2021, 07:51:54 PM

To the OT:  The 10KW solar panels on my roof more-than-likely wouldn't be there if it wasn't for our state's alt-energy incentive program.  I'll admit I was torn in my decision to purchase them, well knowing how it penciled out and who's paying the substantial portion that otherwise wouldn't have penciled out in the open market, while also knowing that I'd be a chump to not jump on the bandwagon.

To be fair, while you were helped out by other tax payers is that inherently bad?  ;)

Right now purchasing US sourced solar is much more expensive than from other sources. The US is getting behind in the R&D department and does not currently have the infrastructure to build solar at scale (low-cost). It is my understanding that the incentives are in place to help jump-start this section of the national economy; an investment which should theoretically pay dividends down the road (without going fully down the keynesian economic rabbit hole).

Solar has improved over the years, and it will improve yet. The cost has come down a lot, and it will drop further.

Electric vehicles are coming (I will miss my diesel some). Automated vehicles are coming (I don't yet like this... I love driving). The way we collect energy is changing (Wind, Solar, Hydro, Nuclear, etc). Of course all of these sources of energy would probably be moot points if we can wrangle fusion power.

Each of these elements is going to have gigantic economic impacts, I think it would behoove the US (or any other country) to be prepared.

--

One could argue that much of American culture as it is known, and the current economy is based off of the highway system; this was originally a public works project. What will be the next such project which will change life as we know it?
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 12, 2021, 09:33:12 PM

One could argue that much of American culture as it is known, and the current economy is based off of the highway system; this was originally a public works project. What will be the next such project which will change life as we know it?
One could argue almost anything...

The US interstate highway system was promoted by President Eisenhower  because of lessons learned during WWII (He liked that autobahn). Serviceable roads are useful for military readiness. Its hard to think like that so many decades later, but it was a valid concern at one time. The unintended side effect of promoting commerce was icing on the cake.

JR

Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Matthias McCready on June 12, 2021, 11:06:19 PM
One could argue almost anything...

The US interstate highway system was promoted by President Eisenhower  because of lessons learned during WWII (He liked that autobahn). Serviceable roads are useful for military readiness. Its hard to think like that so many decades later, but it was a valid concern at one time. The unintended side effect of promoting commerce was icing on the cake.

JR

Correct on both counts  ;D

And still strategically useful today.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 13, 2021, 12:47:23 AM
I was thinking more about this:

Let's say our municipality needs one teacher and one classroom for every 25 students. Well, obviously, these costs increase directly with the number of students, which will (roughly) track total population. Of course, now you have to get those students to and from school, and suddenly cost-per-acre rears its head (heck, if an acre has 1000 students on it, you just build the school there and the kids can walk). Garbage is an even more glaring example: the cost of garbage collection is primarily in the salaries of the people doing the collecting, and it takes them almost as long to collect the garbage for my one house as it does for them to collect the garbage for the whole 12-story apartment building I used to live in. Heck, even policing cost, while mostly population-driven, has an area component, since it costs more officer time (and vehicle wear-and-tear) if all the crime scenes are spread further apart.

(Just to see, I tried to take a look at the Fort Worth city budget but I give up; why is it so complicated?)

-Russ

Why is it so complicated?  Simple answer - they want it that way.  Very smart property tax planning scam they pulled at city hall.  We have the highest rates in the state.  When they slipped the harness on, nobody noticed.  How did they pull that one off?  By very clever design.  Simply undervalue the properties.  The tax hikes are already hard-wired into the system.  They just re-value the properties and the money flows...

Crime begets crime.  The high density areas are also crime hotspots.  How?  Simple, any given criminal has more opportunity for virtually any type of crime - robbery, burglary, drug sales.  Don't have to go far to peddle their goods, or prey upon the victims.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 13, 2021, 05:50:25 PM
Why is it so complicated?  Simple answer - they want it that way. {...}

Honestly, I believe it. Edmonton and Fort Worth are eerily similar cities (Fort Worth is a bit bigger by total area, but the populations are basically the same), but the budget documents are totally different. I really got the sense that the Fort Worth budget has been designed to discourage people from trying to understand it (which is a bit scary, frankly).

{...} The high density areas are also crime hotspots.  How?  Simple, any given criminal has more opportunity for virtually any type of crime - robbery, burglary, drug sales.  Don't have to go far to peddle their goods, or prey upon the victims.

I can't speak for Fort Worth, but I just spent about an hours crunching the numbers and, in Edmonton, this is demonstrably not the case. The most densely-populated neighbourhoods of Edmonton have crime rates (in this case the total number of crimes reported in the past 60 days per thousand residents) that are ~20% higher than the neighbourhood I live in (which I'm using as a control) despite having ~4 times the density. Conversely, the highest-crime neighbourhoods (with between 4 and 5 times the crime rate of my neighbourhood) and the lowest-crime neighbourhoods (with between one fourth and one fifth the crime rate of my neighbourhood) both have roughly twice the population density which, on its own, basically precludes any statistical correlation (let alone the attribution of causality) between density and crime.

In fact, looking over the results, a more contextual interpretation of the numbers suggests that the real drivers of crime are two things. First, neighbourhoods that are designed to support large non-resident populations (e.g. workers commuting to Downtown, or revellers heading to the bar district on a Friday night) can easily see their crime rates double as compared to surrounding neighbourhoods. As my wife points out, these are areas where a significant proportion of the people in them at any given time have no real investment (social or economic) in the area, and this lack of investment encourages carelessness (or worse).

Second (and no great surprise), crime rates pretty clearly track the prevalence of human desperation: the greater the proportion of residents in a neighbourhood who aren't getting the social supports they need, the more per capita criminal activity the neighbourhood is likely to see. Based on this, we can add an interesting twist to your original supposition: anywhere an increase in population density does correlate with an increase in crime is almost certainly a place where higher-density development is being done to such a poor standard that only people with no alternatives would ever choose to live there. Conversely, this also means that a correlation between density and crime isn't an inevitability (Edmonton provides a good example: our densest neighbourhood consistently ranks as one of our most desirable, and its crime rates are basically par for the course).

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 13, 2021, 06:16:49 PM
^^^ Unfortunately, how it should be or how it could be doesn't track with how it really is.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 13, 2021, 07:47:50 PM
^^^ Unfortunately, how it should be or how it could be doesn't track with how it really is.

Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear: the information I posted is based on current census (2019) and crime (last 60 days) data. "Crime doesn't necessarily correlate with population density" isn't some theoretical hypothesis; it's a direct observation of "how it really is".

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Stephen Swaffer on June 14, 2021, 01:41:33 PM

One more thought: there is some (perhaps anectodal) evidence that while a paved road is more expensive to build than gravel, the maintenance costs are much, much lower. A well-built paved road could be cheaper in the long term.

That observation was thrown at our county engineer when my road was being paved (just to my driveway-kinda like it that way :)  )  While that statement may be true, the difference of maintenance vs building is so drastically different that it would be many decades before it ever equaled out.  I thought it interesting that my road was paved when the county came into a "windfall" and decided to pave this road as it was the last one scheduled to be paved on a 40 year old plan.  Think things might have changed in 40 years?  I do have a neighbor that lives a few hundred feet down a side road that was not scheduled to be paved.  He had deep enough pockets to pave the road to his house just so he could live on a hard surface road.

I don't know the equities of taxes versus services.  I do know that during a years long discussion on zoning, it was often brought up that people move to the "country" lured by open space and lower taxes-but not understanding that roads don't always get plowed and there are real limitations on fire/police/ems services as well.  When we had  a major house fire over a decade ago, it took 18 minutes for the fire department to arrive on site (partly due to icey roads).  For years, I figured on missing a day or two of work every year because the roads would be impassable-even with 4WD.  I was stubborn enough to bury a vehicle a couple of times before I got smart.

Brian mentioned $1.20 electricity/gallon of gas earlier.  But that brings up another question.  When gas was around $2.00/gallon here, something around 50-60 cents/gallon was taxes-primarily (supposedly anyway) used for roads.   Those tax dollars will have to be replaced somehow-electric vehicles will be just as hard on roads as IC powered.  I know there are ideas-probably none as hack/scam proof though as paying at the pump as we currently do.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 14, 2021, 03:09:55 PM


Brian mentioned $1.20 electricity/gallon of gas earlier.  But that brings up another question.  When gas was around $2.00/gallon here, something around 50-60 cents/gallon was taxes-primarily (supposedly anyway) used for roads.   Those tax dollars will have to be replaced somehow-electric vehicles will be just as hard on roads as IC powered.  I know there are ideas-probably none as hack/scam proof though as paying at the pump as we currently do.
The legislators have been chewing on this one for decades... not just EV but very efficient cars use less fuel, while lighter cars put less stress on road surfaces. The legislators unable to deal with the cognitive dissonance from taxing EVs while simultaneously subsidizing them have kept kicking this new EV tax down the road every time. Last proposal I've heard was including car odometer reading on tax forms and everybody paying per mile, while they are unlikely to remove the gasoline tax.

JR   
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Doug Fowler on June 14, 2021, 05:14:21 PM
The legislators have been chewing on this one for decades... not just EV but very efficient cars use less fuel, while lighter cars put less stress on road surfaces. The legislators unable to deal with the cognitive dissonance from taxing EVs while simultaneously subsidizing them have kept kicking this new EV tax down the road every time. Last proposal I've heard was including car odometer reading on tax forms and everybody paying per mile, while they are unlikely to remove the gasoline tax.

JR

JR wins the Internet for 15 seconds.  Tax while simultaneously subsidizing, priceless. 
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 14, 2021, 06:05:17 PM
JR wins the Internet for 15 seconds.  Tax while simultaneously subsidizing, priceless.

I believe the concept is known as "Government"...

Kinda like when the geniuses decided it was a good idea to tax social security.  Pass out government assistance to the populous, then tax them on it - astounding.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Chris Hindle on June 15, 2021, 08:02:06 AM
I believe the concept is known as "Government"...

Kinda like when the geniuses decided it was a good idea to tax social security.  Pass our government assistance to the populous, then tax them on it - astounding.
One head scratcher up here in Quebec....
An ex husband claims alimony and child support on his taxes. He gets a nice break.
Ex wife and mother has to claim that "income" on her taxes. No break for the one that NEEDS it.
What a system.
I think we need more woman in politics. Maybe even out some of the stupidity.
>or not<
I have seen some women in power that are no better than men, but I guess that's how they got there.
Chris.

Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Steve-White on June 15, 2021, 12:26:44 PM
Sorry, maybe I wasn't clear: the information I posted is based on current census (2019) and crime (last 60 days) data. "Crime doesn't necessarily correlate with population density" isn't some theoretical hypothesis; it's a direct observation of "how it really is".

-Russ

Crystal clear Russ.  No, crime does not track directly with population density - gotta factor in the socioeconomic elements.  Typically trended to specific areas and are always the worst in the highest density parts of them.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Jonathan Johnson on June 15, 2021, 04:34:43 PM
One could argue almost anything...

The US interstate highway system was promoted by President Eisenhower  because of lessons learned during WWII (He liked that autobahn). Serviceable roads are useful for military readiness. Its hard to think like that so many decades later, but it was a valid concern at one time. The unintended side effect of promoting commerce was icing on the cake.

JR

But if we read the U.S. Constitution, there's a mandate for building "post roads." While the concept of "post roads" is ostensibly for the transport of postal mail, they also support commerce and military strategy. The founders of this country were businessmen; I don't think the utility of post roads for commerce was lost on them. The Interstate Highway System, I think, perfectly embodies the dream of the founders -- and not just for getting the mail through.

I believe the Constitution was originally written for the promotion and protection of free commerce. Even the military bits are there to protect trade (which, when you think about it, is the purpose of almost every military action). The Bill of Rights came about when they realized that individual liberties could be trampled in the pursuit of commerce -- and, without those protections, the pursuit of commerce could lead to fiefdoms and a fracturing of the union.
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Russell Ault on June 15, 2021, 06:34:49 PM
{...} Typically trended to specific areas and are always the worst in the highest density parts of them.

The first half of this seems to be right; the second half isn't supported by the evidence. The area directly to the northeast of Edmonton's central business district has (like in a lot of places with prevailing westerly winds) been economically disadvantaged basically from day one. One of the three neighbourhoods in this part of town is about twice as dense as the other two, but its crime rate per capita is between 25% and 40% lower than the other two neighbourhoods.

-Russ
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 15, 2021, 07:45:25 PM
But if we read the U.S. Constitution,
and I do
Quote
there's a mandate for building "post roads." While the concept of "post roads" is ostensibly for the transport of postal mail, they also support commerce and military strategy.
it was about the mail, our founders valued mail.
Quote
The founders of this country were businessmen; I don't think the utility of post roads for commerce was lost on them.
Most were farmers and landowners, a few were craftsmen and even publishers (like Ben Franklin, who published a lot of his own uttering).
Quote
The Interstate Highway System, I think, perfectly embodies the dream of the founders -- and not just for getting the mail through.
I believe the former General Eisenhower was clear about his motivation (lessons learned in WWII with assets bogged down in the wrong places).
Quote
I believe the Constitution was originally written for the promotion and protection of free commerce.
Protect more than promote... that promotion is a much later mission creep (IMO).
Quote
Even the military bits are there to protect trade (which, when you think about it, is the purpose of almost every military action).
Protecting our interests, the marines were created to spank the Tripoli pirates, who are still pirates today, but prevented free trade back in the day. 
Quote
The Bill of Rights came about when they realized that individual liberties could be trampled in the pursuit of commerce -- and, without those protections, the pursuit of commerce could lead to fiefdoms and a fracturing of the union.
You are entitled to your own opinion. In my judgement the bill of rights was about protecting individual rights. The founders were most fearful of any concentration of government power.

A good book that reveals what the founders were thinking is the "Federalist Papers", essays they wrote at the time arguing for their personal preferences.

These guys were serious students of governance, and saw lots of systems that didn't work before ours.

JR
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Doug Fowler on June 15, 2021, 08:26:34 PM
-the marines were created to spank the Tripoli pirates, who are still pirates today-

You calling Marines pirates?

You might be partially correct :-)
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: John Roberts {JR} on June 15, 2021, 10:20:12 PM
-the marines were created to spank the Tripoli pirates, who are still pirates today-

You calling Marines pirates?

You might be partially correct :-)
A good book IMO, "Thomas Jefferson and the Tripoli pirates" by Brian Kilmeade.

My reference was that some residents of that region haven't changed that much in the decades (centuries?) since. Some of the things those pirates were doing back then, are still being done recently by ISIS and the like. 

President Thomas Jefferson said no mas to the extortion.... and world trade benefitted. 

JR
Title: Re: Battery-electric Road Vehicles and Energy Infrastructure
Post by: Doug Fowler on June 15, 2021, 10:41:11 PM
A good book IMO, "Thomas Jefferson and the Tripoli pirates" by Brian Kilmeade.

My reference was that some residents of that region haven't changed that much in the decades (centuries?) since. Some of the things those pirates were doing back then, are still being done recently by ISIS and the like. 

President Thomas Jefferson said no mas to the extortion.... and world trade benefitted. 

JR

521 mile force march *through north Africa* to get to the X (Battle of Derna).

The pirate business is profitable until someone stops it.  Somali pirates, etc. 

Thanks for the book info, hope it's available on Audible.
 
Edit: snagged it for one Audible credit.