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Author Topic: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff  (Read 897 times)

Tim McCulloch

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Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« on: March 07, 2021, 09:21:22 pm »

This time from Netherlands -

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/07/dutch-clubbers-dance-study-easing-lockdown-music-event-coronavirus

The paragraph that caught my eye:  "Government advisers will use the data they collect on the behaviour recorded to help make decisions on possibly easing the restrictions on night life in the coming months. One of the observations, organisers said, was that even those asked to keep their masks on soon dispensed with them as they got into the flow of the music."

It reflects my experience last October, when I "mixed" the 1 event of Covid-2020 - when the house lights went down, eventually so did the masks... and is why I keep saying "biology causes illnesses, people maintain pandemics."
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"Practicing an art, no matter how well or badly, is a way to make your soul grow, for heaven's sake. Sing in the shower. Dance to the radio. Tell stories. Write a poem to a friend, even a lousy poem. Do it as well as you possible can. You will get an enormous reward. You will have created something."  - Kurt Vonnegut

Chris Hindle

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #1 on: March 08, 2021, 12:31:16 pm »

This time from Netherlands -

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/07/dutch-clubbers-dance-study-easing-lockdown-music-event-coronavirus

The paragraph that caught my eye:  "Government advisers will use the data they collect on the behaviour recorded to help make decisions on possibly easing the restrictions on night life in the coming months. One of the observations, organisers said, was that even those asked to keep their masks on soon dispensed with them as they got into the flow of the music."

It reflects my experience last October, when I "mixed" the 1 event of Covid-2020 - when the house lights went down, eventually so did the masks... and is why I keep saying "biology causes illnesses, people maintain pandemics."

What ever happened to the "event test" done in Germany last year?
Chris.
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Tim McCulloch

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2021, 03:14:10 pm »

What ever happened to the "event test" done in Germany last year?
Chris.

There was a preliminary report and I think I posted a link... nothing stood out to me as being contrary to scientific thought regarding masks or distancing but I'd need to read it again to be sure.

A quick G search brought up these three:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwi05uOvwKHvAhUJa80KHZ_LDxwQFjABegQIBBAD&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2F10%2F30%2Fcoronavirus-concert-experiment-leipzig-germany-aerosols%2F&usg=AOvVaw1zi9r-1qT4GYj1nsW5KiFh

https://www.pollstar.com/article/events-can-take-place-german-scientists-present-covid-experiment-results-146716

https://liveforlivemusic.com/news/german-concert-experiment-results/

I posted the full Google link because the Washington Post has a paywall, and IIRC they don't apply it to hot linking from a search engine.
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"Practicing an art, no matter how well or badly, is a way to make your soul grow, for heaven's sake. Sing in the shower. Dance to the radio. Tell stories. Write a poem to a friend, even a lousy poem. Do it as well as you possible can. You will get an enormous reward. You will have created something."  - Kurt Vonnegut

Chris Hindle

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #3 on: March 09, 2021, 12:24:13 pm »

Interesting reading, thanks Tim.
Chris.
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George Friedman-Jimenez

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2021, 01:45:21 am »

The German experiment is interesting but needs to be interpreted with caution, especially in light of the Netherlands article. The German experiment resulted in a manuscript being published without scientific peer review on October 30, 2020. The manuscript is available online at:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.28.20221580v1.full.pdf

Typically, academic centers simultaneously submit manuscripts for peer review in major medical journals. Assuming that is the case, we would expect a review and publication online relatively rapidly after submission. It has been 5 and a half months since then and I found no peer reviewed publication of this study by those authors as of today. I have no specific information about what happened but typically a delay that long in spite of fast-track Covid-19 review policies suggests that either the reviewers are requiring major revisions that take time, or the article has been rejected and resubmitted to a different journal. A large, rapidly deployed, and complicated study like that which makes strong assumptions and which could have major policy implications potentially affecting large numbers of people's lives and health merits a thorough and rigorous review.

This is an academically designed and conducted study funded by the German government and is very likely to be published eventually. That said, the study recruited less than half the target sample size they believed was necessary, it was a simulation of exposures and they did not estimate actual infection rates based on diagnosed infections. The high rate of compliance with mask-wearing and distancing may be unrealistic for actual events in the future, as Tim's observation suggests. People may be less likely to stay home if any symptoms or exposures potentially related to Covid are present. The high rate of false negatives of single point-in-time Covid tests was not discussed. The N95 masks were not fit tested and the proportion of participants with poorly sealing masks and their impact on protection were not discussed. None of the new more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2 were considered in the models as far as I saw in the report. Assumptions about movement of buoyant clouds of infectious aerosols from yelling participants in the crowd, which can disperse to long distances from the source under certain conditions, were not clearly stated. Given these limitations of the study and strong unstated assumptions, their conclusion that, "When hygiene concepts are applied and conditions of good ventilation are met, MGEs (mass gathering events) appear  to  contribute  little  to  epidemic  spread  of  COVID-19." does not seem solidly supported by their data.

My opinion as a physician epidemiologist (my day job) is that, given the very high level of the plateau of the Covid new case rate in many parts of the US and the ease of travel, before we make any decisions based on this pre-review manuscript and the lay press interpretations that were published a few days later, we should wait and see what the final peer reviewed article says. In addition, the proportion of the population that gets vaccinated and the characteristics of current and future variants need to be factored into the ongoing decision making process.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2021, 01:54:03 am by George Friedman-Jimenez »
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Tim McCulloch

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2021, 04:03:49 pm »

Great review, George, succinct and to the point.

I think the "German" study had too many variables in play for specific conclusions to be reached; perhaps that is why we haven't seen peer-reviewed publication yet - too many moving parts.

My personal concern is that the USA will have regional "fourth waves" of infection that when combined with compliance burnout, will have dire results, much of impact on the relatively young and active (18-49).
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"Practicing an art, no matter how well or badly, is a way to make your soul grow, for heaven's sake. Sing in the shower. Dance to the radio. Tell stories. Write a poem to a friend, even a lousy poem. Do it as well as you possible can. You will get an enormous reward. You will have created something."  - Kurt Vonnegut

Chris Hindle

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #6 on: April 13, 2021, 08:10:08 am »

Great review, George, succinct and to the point.

My personal concern is that the USA will have regional "fourth waves" of infection that when combined with compliance burnout, will have dire results, much of impact on the relatively young and active (18-49).
We are already seeing that in Quebec and Ontario. Kids are dying. Well, kids compared to you and I.....
Forth wave? Personally, we never left the first wave. These new variants are just what a virus does to survive. It mutates, and finds new hosts to infect......
I have had my first dose of Moderna, but no way I actually feel any safer.
I am vaccinated, NOT immunized!!!
I still have a suppressed immune system for my Kidney Transplant, diabetes and age.
Interesting times. A little too interesting for my taste...
Stay safe. Keep your fuckin distance......
Chris.
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John L Nobile

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #7 on: April 13, 2021, 10:22:12 am »

We are already seeing that in Quebec and Ontario. Kids are dying. Well, kids compared to you and I.....
Forth wave? Personally, we never left the first wave. These new variants are just what a virus does to survive. It mutates, and finds new hosts to infect......
I have had my first dose of Moderna, but no way I actually feel any safer.
I am vaccinated, NOT immunized!!!
I still have a suppressed immune system for my Kidney Transplant, diabetes and age.
Interesting times. A little too interesting for my taste...
Stay safe. Keep your fuckin distance......
Chris.

Numbers are reaching all time highs in Ontario. Worrisome but I'm hoping they'll go down with the month long lockdown we've started. At least the golf courses are staying open.

I just got my first Moderna shot and I'm feeling good about it. get my second next month and I'll feel even better. And "experts" are saying that we'll have a pretty normal summer by Canada Day. I'm hoping that means some outdoor concerts (at least)

But I'm wondering what the concert scene is like in states like Texas where I saw a baseball game with the stands full of fans. Are they having full blown concerts there and bands in bars?
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Chris Hindle

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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2021, 12:35:36 pm »

Numbers are reaching all time highs in Ontario. Worrisome but I'm hoping they'll go down with the month long lockdown we've started. At least the golf courses are staying open.

I just got my first Moderna shot and I'm feeling good about it. get my second next month and I'll feel even better. And "experts" are saying that we'll have a pretty normal summer by Canada Day. I'm hoping that means some outdoor concerts (at least)

But I'm wondering what the concert scene is like in states like Texas where I saw a baseball game with the stands full of fans. Are they having full blown concerts there and bands in bars?

Sorry John, I'm not buying into Canada Day predictions. Our illustrious Premiere said normal by June 24. But that was 2 weeks ago. Just ask any ICU Doctor or Nurse...... i have contacts in Hopital Maisonneuve Rosemount
 and the Jewish General. What they are going through ain't pretty....
The surgeon that did my kidney is now in a working group studying the double iung transplant recently done in Ontario. Scary, a perfectly healthy 40 something got covid, and the only way to save his life was a double lung transplant.  Hint- there are not many "free" lungs floating around.......

I'm not counting on very much until at least 85% of the population is COMPLETELY vaccinated.
My second shot is July 13, IF there is supply... What with the EU and India getting a little protective about exports...
Stay safe, and keep your fuckin distance...
Chris.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2021, 12:41:04 pm by Chris Hindle »
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Re: Another "recruit an audience" test for airborne stuff
« Reply #8 on: April 13, 2021, 12:35:36 pm »


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